Just been on @bbcR4today talking to Justin about this Gove letter to industry about updated “reasonable worst case scenario” for post Brexit transition period border - first time clear acknowledgement of potential disruption on 1/1/21
“Maximum queues of 7000 port bound trucks”
contained in a letter sent yesterday to industry, encouraging it to get prepared for the new border irrespective of whether there is a deal or not...
delay scenario of 2 days - is almost the same as was in the Operation Yellowhammer No Deal documents (1.5 to 2.5 days) last year
Underlying projection is 70% of freight trucks traveling to EU from UK, and up to half on short straits crossing (Dover/ Eurotunnel) will not have correct documentation, coupled with assumption France will instigate full goods controls, stopping all freight without correct docs:
Such would be the extent of delays that lorries “caught up in congestion in the UK will be “unable to travel to the EU to export products” / collect another consignment “therefore we assume both imports and exports could be disrupted to a similar extent”...
Delays assumed to build over first two weeks of January and last up to three months as traders get used to new checks, but could last beyond that if France applies rigorously Schengen passport checks at juxtaposed border (first time I’ve seen that detailed as a potential issue).
Includes assumption that “some logistics operators may stop sending lorries via these routes in the event of significant delays” - this was a key fear of supermarkets’ no deal planning last year, particularly for refrigerated lorries carrying fresh food
All against backdrop of Covid/ weak economy - new post Brexit border at same time as pandemic, Govt say: 1. “A winter spike could suppress freight demand” (helping limit queues) BUT 2. “Absenteeism among port/ border staff and social distancing measures” (making queues worse)
Big picture here is Government wants to send message to hauliers/ exporters must be ready for new paperwork for new customs border with EU... hauliers say they are being “fitted up” for inevitable disruption caused by Govt post Brexit choices, unready systems, failure to extend..
Hauliers went public about recent Gove meeting being a “washout”...Govt say “not about blaming hauliers at all” need to be “transparent & cleared eyes about challenges”...but also will be “big opportunities for businesses who currently trade with EU only” bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
But then I get this message from hauliers.... 👀
Other issues - mutually beneficial deal to be done on UK haulage access to EU roads, but haven’t been able to talk as impasse on fish/state aid. Will that require adherence to EU rules on eg driver hours?
With No Deal, also fundamental issue of tiny number of permits for lorries
Government says will introduce a ‘Smart Freight’ IT service to enable traders/hauliers to complete a border readiness check. The information will be shared with Kent police to ensure only compliant vehicles travel to the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel. Updated border model coming
HT to @lisaocarroll for breaking this weeks ago. We get the official account in a Commons statement shortly... here’s our full story on this. But more to come... bbc.co.uk/news/uk-542604…
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1 in 4 Scottish adults on anti-depressants doctor just told Amol on @BBCr4today re inactivity…
Can’t find directly comparable England stat … but NHS England business data says there were 8.6m patients prescribed antidepressants in 22/23 (up from 6.8m in 2015)… 19% of adults
Thanks followers - the doc did say 1 in 5, and the fact is here from NHS business data … 8.6m antidepressant prescriptions out of an adult population of 45 million… 5.6m women, 2.9m men. Up from 2015 6.8m prescriptions/ 43m population… (1 in 6)
these numbers seem astonishing.
By age
English children on prescribed antidepressants, including a handful of toddlers - big spike up is for teenage girls…
1. Leading African figures told me privately that Kagame’s clear frustration with the UK-Rwanda deal, communicated to me “it’s UK’s problem” & “have money back” also reflect eyebrows being raised in other African nations about general look for a man who likes to be seen as the modern leader of a confident Africa, and who may have clocked that it may be reversing his considerable investments in nation-branding (sponsoring PL footy teams) etc. Watch this space. Here’s my iPhone video…
2. Remember, there are two sides to this deal:
I got a note from a very connected commentator after my doorstep: “It's a really bad look for him. He knows that the whole point of this policy is to make the UK govt look tough on migrants, on the grounds that Rwanda is presumptively a terrible place to be sent to. It puts the Rwanda country brand back like 20 years. … the only thing people associate with the country is "the worst place the Brits can think to send people"….
Context here - some real buzz about Africa jumping value chains, not just producing minerals but the finished products the world needs and doing so within a massive new free trade area…
3. Heard an interesting theory from business leader Brits out here… the autumn election promise is a feint, and earlier (May?) will happen as a result of the “shock” of the ECHR (possibly?) quashing the Rwanda policy and fought on that basis, with an attempt to reenergise Brexit vibes… if that’s even half true… then worth noting that Ireland has just formally lodged its ECHR case against the UK on Troubles Legacy Act… oh… and coming up imminently on @BBCNews is my interview with the Taoiseach covering this topic…
Governor Bailey says the risk on inflation “remains on the upside” when talking to MPs… backdrop to the Autumn Statement push to declare a turning point - MPC member Catherine Mann also suggests rates should be higher, because of continuing price and wage pressures …
Mann: inflation forecast points to not hitting 2% inflation target until mid 2026
🚨
Bailey:
“Market is putting too much weight on current data releases” showing “inflation come down quite rapidly”… we are “concerned” about “potential persistence” of inflation as “we go through remainder of journey down to 2% and I think the market is underestimating this”…
extraordinary testimony from Dep Cabinet Sec Mcnamara, about “jovial tone” and “breezy confidence” of PM Johnson in face of Italian “overreacting” re first European Covid wave even there was “laughing at the Italians”…
at time Italian docs implored Brits to learn its lessons
There was definitely some lobby briefing at the time with some sneering at the Italians - which I recall being really rather revealing, because my medical family were recirculating accounts from Italian doctor friends repeatedly warning UK to take advantage of headstart eg below
German finance minister Lindner tells me:
“this a standing invitation for the UK if you want to intensify your trade relationship with EU - Call Us!”
Saying post Brexit trade barriers “new obstacles in daily business life” are not benefitting German business or the UK
Lindner: “in daily life of German corporates, there are new obstacles since Brexit, I don't think UK is benefiting from Brexit. And so I, I believe i’m convinced we need new steps to reduce the obstacles in the daily business life for people and corporates to have trade”
FULL STORY …
Exclusive interview with German finance minister @c_lindner including natural follow up on why not help avoid tariffs on electric cars this Jan, then, and re German economy, & whether gas supplies/ storage good for this winter here: bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Think that budget will probably go up… but gives a sense of perspective on the costs of HS2 phase 1… and it’ll probably open before hs2 even though 2027 probs won’t be met.
But also how was it funded?
30 year “FILP” state loans with 0.5%- 1% interest rates taken out in 2017
“Securing long-term, fixed- & low- rate financing using FILP, by taking advantage of low-interest rate environment at time of draw- down, enable us to mitigate management risk start construction work for section between Nagoya and Osaka”
(NB that’s nearly Lon-Glasgow in 67 mins!)