Faisal Islam Profile picture
Sep 23, 2020 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Just been on @bbcR4today talking to Justin about this Gove letter to industry about updated “reasonable worst case scenario” for post Brexit transition period border - first time clear acknowledgement of potential disruption on 1/1/21

“Maximum queues of 7000 port bound trucks”
contained in a letter sent yesterday to industry, encouraging it to get prepared for the new border irrespective of whether there is a deal or not...

delay scenario of 2 days - is almost the same as was in the Operation Yellowhammer No Deal documents (1.5 to 2.5 days) last year
Underlying projection is 70% of freight trucks traveling to EU from UK, and up to half on short straits crossing (Dover/ Eurotunnel) will not have correct documentation, coupled with assumption France will instigate full goods controls, stopping all freight without correct docs:
Such would be the extent of delays that lorries “caught up in congestion in the UK will be “unable to travel to the EU to export products” / collect another consignment “therefore we assume both imports and exports could be disrupted to a similar extent”...
Delays assumed to build over first two weeks of January and last up to three months as traders get used to new checks, but could last beyond that if France applies rigorously Schengen passport checks at juxtaposed border (first time I’ve seen that detailed as a potential issue).
Includes assumption that “some logistics operators may stop sending lorries via these routes in the event of significant delays” - this was a key fear of supermarkets’ no deal planning last year, particularly for refrigerated lorries carrying fresh food
All against backdrop of Covid/ weak economy - new post Brexit border at same time as pandemic, Govt say:
1. “A winter spike could suppress freight demand” (helping limit queues) BUT
2. “Absenteeism among port/ border staff and social distancing measures” (making queues worse)
Big picture here is Government wants to send message to hauliers/ exporters must be ready for new paperwork for new customs border with EU... hauliers say they are being “fitted up” for inevitable disruption caused by Govt post Brexit choices, unready systems, failure to extend..
Hauliers went public about recent Gove meeting being a “washout”...Govt say “not about blaming hauliers at all” need to be “transparent & cleared eyes about challenges”...but also will be “big opportunities for businesses who currently trade with EU only” bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
But then I get this message from hauliers.... 👀
Other issues - mutually beneficial deal to be done on UK haulage access to EU roads, but haven’t been able to talk as impasse on fish/state aid. Will that require adherence to EU rules on eg driver hours?

With No Deal, also fundamental issue of tiny number of permits for lorries
Government says will introduce a ‘Smart Freight’ IT service to enable traders/hauliers to complete a border readiness check. The information will be shared with Kent police to ensure only compliant vehicles travel to the Port of Dover and Eurotunnel. Updated border model coming
HT to @lisaocarroll for breaking this weeks ago. We get the official account in a Commons statement shortly... here’s our full story on this. But more to come... bbc.co.uk/news/uk-542604…

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More from @faisalislam

Sep 2
“One monopolist serves as a gatekeeper for the delivery of nearly all live music in America today”

- US Govt’s attempt to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster announced in May in a court filing is quite a document… “platinum” pricing is mentioned 5 times … #Ticketonomics Image
Live Nation itself said this year that platinum pricing was in its 5th innings in the US but “in its first” in Europe and their intention to apply it “all along the way” until the concert “gates open up” is a “multi year opportunity to grow our top line/ bottom line”…
CEO Michael Rapino said earlier this year ”it’s just pricing smarter” & “it’s a skill” where LN/ Ticketmasters in-house team “works with artists, agents, managers” to “price the fronts better so the back sells out”… “rolling this around world” is “the great growth opportunity” Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 23
NAO confirms that HS2 without phase 2 will result in trains with less space between Manchester and Birmingham than current west Coast services, and might require demand management to dissuade passengers… bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…
Non-consensus view, but having sunk the costs of phase 1, and then committed to the hybrid bill for HS2 north… the cost benefit ratio of completing the bit between Manchester airport and Birmingham will be very high… would require political consensus to be re-established though
Who can forget the Perm Sec’s amazing document from last year.. the strategic case on rebalancing Britain “no longer applies”
Read 20 tweets
Jul 21
Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt acknowledges to @bbclaurak when asked if Conservatives had won whether there would have been tax cuts in Autumn that “we wouldn’t have been able to do it immediately, no”

most notable thing re: Chancellor interview with Laura is this unusual Treasury analysis due in next fortnight which will “look at the state of the public services, the state of the public finances…public spending pressures we are under”

Q: why isnt the OBR doing this?
While fiscally eventful, it is not going to be a “fiscal event”… when first announced by Chancellor on her first Monday in office it sounded more like an audit of stalled spending and impact on public services, than an audit of the public finances…
Read 6 tweets
Jul 9
Reassuringly, @demishassabis tells Blair at the @InstituteGC conference that Artificial Intelligence is only at the IQ level of a cat right now.. [although that is changing rapidly - surely will exceed humans in many tasks in this Parliament] 🐈‍⬛
Interesting to think Blair as PM famously never used his computer, or rarely did so…

Also has the scars, as it were, from that failed NHS IT contract… if only that had succeeded…

Interesting to know if this Govt is conscious of the ghosts of that and of botched PFI deals.
Chancellor’s Mais lecture did have sense of learning from some setbacks during the Blair era … havent seen a good analysis tho of where eg record on PFI and the NHS IT contract [perhaps Horizon too] forms part of this govt’s memory.

Nothing is entirely new in politics, ever.
Read 16 tweets
Jun 5
Coutinho co-opting the Treasury Permanent Secretary into backing idea that Labour will raise taxes by thousands…

All this arises because the OBR (unlike its equivalent in Ireland, Australia the US, the CBO) is prevented from doing comparable truly independent costings…
This whole “debate” is, for now, rather absurd, as next week we will get the actual policies in manifestos, the parties’ own assumptions and separate truly independent numbers on the implications for tax, spend & borrowing from the likes of the IFS & Niesr.
The Treasury Permanent Secretary who Coutinho deployed this morning to defend the £38bn/ £2k claim wrote to the Opposition to say it “should not be presented as having been produced by civil service”… this could be problematic…
Read 6 tweets
May 20
Looks like a major “announcement” on energy bills is imminent … another @politicalpics long lens scoop… Big Six have been briefed … something to do with the energy price cap adjustment (cut) from July (coming by Friday), further policy on smart meters (rollout has stalled)
”Note we do not necessarily want their advocacy as consumer trust is so low in suppliers that if a package of this kind is backed by them then consumers will instinctively regard it as not in their best interests” the memo says of the Big Six energy providers
Logically, some sort of announcement that builds on the inflation fall (energy driven) on Wednesday and the further fall in the cap on Friday, to promote the idea that the cost of living crisis is behind us, but something not all the energy companies will back - perhaps rolling back some of the green additions ???
Read 6 tweets

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