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Eric Profile picture
@The_OtherET
Sep 23, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Thinking about this Star Tribune article from May detailing how there are two ends to a pandemic: a “social” one and “medical” one. They quote some historians who theorize the social end may be before medical, but I think the opposite has actually happened m.startribune.com/pandemic-s-end…
The “social” end is when people just stop worrying about the disease. Clinical definitions may vary - but it’s clear COVID is no longer an enormous burden on our health care system. Hospitalizations are dropping drastically and have been for months at this point.
The renewed focus on “cases” using PCR tests that are far too sensitive and are not useful for diagnostic purposes this late in the game is artificially extending our “social” pandemic, as more useful indicators (hospitalizations and ED visits) continue to drop ImageImage
The largest indication that this continues to be a social pandemic vs a clinical one is that there is an abundance of evidence #COVID19 was here MONTHS before we even realized it, yet life still went on. People went to concerts, had conventions, went to bars etc

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More from @The_OtherET

Eric Profile picture
Jun 22, 2022
There is a false narrative emerging based on weak/little evidence that is attempting to blame the current issues around air travel on the removal of mask mandates. This is despite there being minimal disruptions for *two months* post-mandate and no documented outbreaks. 1/🧵
2/ As some of you know I've been periodically tracking flight disruptions for a while post-mandate. This was over a month after the mandate was removed. No issues:

3/ Compare this to over the holidays during the winter/omicron surge, where there were mass cancellations that airlines explicitly said were due to staff out with COVID. This was, of course, while the mask mandates were still in place. nytimes.com/2021/12/25/bus…
Read 15 tweets
Eric Profile picture
Jan 30, 2022
1/ It's nearly February 2022 and people are still posting flu data suggesting masks, distancing etc. virtually eliminate influenza. Seasonal viruses "disappearing" is something that has happened previously during other pandemics/epidemics, regardless of policy. This isn't new. 🧵
2/ It is true that in the United States, flu prevalence dropped dramatically once mask wearing became slightly more common (from 58% -> 70%) - but this is a spurious correlation that doesn’t hold up when looking at areas where masking is not-so-common.
3/ Based on the chart above, one could assume that when community masking reaches some threshold, flu prevalence drops dramatically. Yet, looking at influenza surveillance for high-mask areas like New York (86%) and low-mask areas like South Dakota (42%), you see the same trend.
Read 12 tweets
Eric Profile picture
Jan 10, 2022
1/ This ordinance proposal that I just read out of Jackson County, MO is truly insane. It essentially grants unilateral authority to the Jackson County Health Department. It would basically create a public health dictatorship.
2/ The health department (ominously labeled 'The Director' in this draft) can implement any public health measures they deem necessary in public and private schools as well as child care facilities, including "exclusion of people with suspected illnesses".
3/ The Director has the power to close any public or private school if they deem it a public health threat. They can close any place of public or private assembly. Presumably, this also includes churches. They cannot reopen unless The Director deems it safe.
Read 11 tweets
Eric Profile picture
Dec 29, 2021
This thread is chock-full of self-contradictions and a complete misrepresentation of the physics of fine aerosols, as well as a misunderstanding of how the NIOSH hierarchy of controls works and what types of PPE it represents.
The transmission dynamics of airborne particles are far from "basic physics", but Joseph misleads people here by suggesting we're still dealing with large droplets that predictably fall to the ground. Look up Stokes law Joseph. Strike 1.
Joseph says he was one of the first people to call for masks in this Washington Post article.

In it, he once again talks about "droplets" and suggests fomite transmission is a major threat (it isn't). Bizarre that he'd still share this article. Strike 2.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Profile picture
Dec 4, 2021
1/ An article/chart that suggest the state of Missouri's health dept suppressed data that "found masks work" has been making the rounds lately with a few particular posts getting thousands of likes and retweets. In reality, the data completely contradict what they're saying.
2/ First, the timeline they chose was completely arbitrary and includes a significant portion of time when both groups did not have mandates in place. The case numbers started diverging *two months* before the first mask mandates started, suggesting significant confounders.
3/ But what if people started wearing masks prior to mandates? The data don't support that - the number of people wearing masks only significantly increased after the mandates started. delphi.cmu.edu/covidcast/indi…
Read 9 tweets
Eric Profile picture
Aug 30, 2021
1/ The letter the US DOE sent today to several states saying they are opening an investigation into their ban on school mask mandates is dangerous and misguided. Their main claim is that banning mask mandates in schools creates an unsafe environment for at-risk kids.
2/ They open the letter by saying cases are rising in both the US population and school-aged children - which is true but has nothing to do with masks in schools. They mention rising hospitalizations in kids but fail to mention we are seeing an enormous out-of-season RSV spike.
3/ Additionally, other countries that experienced a delta wave such as the UK did not see rising pediatric hospitalization rates. It doesn't make much sense that delta would be uniquely dangerous to US kids. COVID co-infection with RSV could explain this.
Read 16 tweets

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