As of 8 pm Wed., Ontario's regional public health units are reporting another 373 confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases, with 4 more deaths.
The 7-day avg. is 🔺 to 403 cases/day and 🔺 to 1.7 deaths/day.
First time the 7-day avg. has been north of 400 cases/day since May 26.
Accounting notes:
- Toronto reported 129 new cases but the unit's total rose by 99. In the past, this would suggest data cleaning scrubbed 30 cases, but I don't know yet if that's the case today. Regardless, my total for the day includes 129 from Toronto.
- The province's total for Toronto from the same reporting period was 102.
- The province also had 0 in Middlesex-London, but the unit reported 12.
- So: Add 30ish from Toronto and 12 from London to province's 335 from this morning, and it's much closer to what I'm seeing.
Regardless: 373 is a big drop from yesterday, isn't that good?
... yes, but it's not yet meaningful. We've had out-of-trent single days before, we don't yet know if this one is a sign of anything.
Besides, 373 is still a heckuva lot more than we were seeing just 10 days ago.
Meantime: It's reasonably clear the growth in the GTA is now outpacing the rest of the province.
Oh: I forgot to mention the running total.
It's 50,417 confirmed and probable cases, and 2,876 deaths.
(Not sure how meaningful that number is in the context of a second wave, so I'm going to refer to it less moving forward.)
Ahem: "out-of-trend"
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The Star's front page this morning includes @MarcoOved, @KenyonWallace & me on how Ontario is spending billions to entrench a system of mostly for-profit long-term care that disproportionately failed to keep elders alive in the pandemic.
The expansion is going to facility construction and beds with permits that last decades. It will define a generation of care.
The expansion has no correlation with how each operator actually performed — some of the worst chains by pandemic death rates are among the most awarded.
The industry continues to say that this fact — that for-profits saw far more COVID death per capita — is explained by other factors, specifically: The for-profits' generally older facilities and higher local infection rates.
Headley lead-singer Jacob Hoggard has been charged with an unrelated 2016 sex assault in Kirkland Lake, Ont., a fact @alysanmati can report now that his Toronto jury has just been sequestered for deliberations.
The jury only learned that Hoggard's defence had mistakenly played a clip from a CBC interview detailing another entirely different woman's allegations against Hoggard because a CBC producer noticed the error in court and spoke up.
(Those allegations involve a 2013 incident in Toronto, so they are *not* the ones Hoggard has been charged over in Kirkland Lake.)
1/n PHO has a new risk assessment on the spread of the current BA. 2 wave.
Among other things it says:
- The wave is associated with lifting mask mandates
- We're likely to see ++ serious illness in children
- Reintroducing masking would be an effective + practical intervention
Some observations follow, but the main one is this document is *remarkably* frank and matter-of-fact about our current state of risk and what might be effective interventions.
I encourage you to read it.
The topline risk assessment:
3/n Some key lines, and there are a lot of them:
"Timely, temporary re-implementation of increased public health measures and continuation of
existing measures can help mitigate current epidemiological trends."
It's reasonably clear Ontario's current wave has not yet peaked in infections; with lag time, we're at least a couple weeks from hospitalizations peaking.
To me, the key question in the next 7-10 days is whether this hospitalization rate continues to accelerate in the meantime.
If the current rate of hospitalization growth continues through late April, it is likely to look similar to Wave 3, (but with fewer ICUs.)
If it accelerates in the next 7-10 days, we're really not that far from a wave that looks most like Jan.
Why would it accelerate?
- If infection rates are further from peak than we might think (if they double again, hospitalizations will too.)
- If seniors avoided infection in the first part of this wave, but that changes (this happened in Jan.)
Not so fun fact: It took me nearly two years before realizing this week that the previous owners had installed the gas stove's fume hood in "recirculation" mode, rather than vent out the hole in the wall it's hooked up to.