Sunak has written a weird existentialist letter to Tory members ... implicitly promising no second lockdown and to "make it up as we go along" let's dechypher... 1/
2/ Sunak signalling the economy will come first, public health second... it's Dom's "let em die" line all over again... and notice the far right trope in the word "liberate" ...
3/ "liberate" is a dog whistle to the MAGA/QAnon creeps who are everywhere on the plebeian right... not just to traditional Tory libertarians ...
4/ "I've just inadvertently subsidised the takeoff of a pandemic Second Wave that is going to dwarf the first one and I was "not wrong" ....
5/ Sunak translated: I am going to veto a second lockdown but I have no idea therefore how to stop the virus ... Tory appetite for public health downside risk is boundless ...
6/6 It's not our fault if we start hitting six figure death toll, it's yours, thank you, goodnight and here's a nice portrait of me paid for by the taxpayer...
7/ I finally worked out whose prose style Sunak is channelling here...
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In the name of public service, and as ex-economics editor of BBC Newsnight, I offer to do a zoom call, tonight, with any Labour MP who wants to understand why bond markets do not "fall into line" with governments. 1/
2/ Because pension funds have moved from defined benefits to payouts dependent on the stock market, they don't need to hold so much government debt (orange bit) ...a third is now held by foreign banks (blue bit) ... the red bit by the Bank of England...
3/ And because HMT favours issuing long-dated bonds, and because the UK suffers unique stresses due to decades of privatisation, ill health and ageing, (and Truss), our borrowing costs are an outlier...
I understand MPs' frustration with @Keir_Starmer speech, on top of election losses, but please look rationally at the risks we are running. Here's a visual guide... let me talk through it...🧵1/~
2/ In the left column are all potential options from MPs' discontent with Starmer. I am discontented too, and want more radical policies... I doubt a Streeting challenge would rattle the markets badly - though it risks doing so simply from the law of unintended consequences...
3/ Any soft-left/Burnham challenge that did not have its programme fiscally watertight risks setting off the whole cascade in this chart *even before it succeeds*...
I don't want Keir to resign - nor do I want him to set a timetable for resigning - I want the Labour Party to diagnose its own problems and the wider fragmenting political landscape and face facts: working class people are in a zero sum game and we need to be on their side ... 1/
2/ This is not the end of UK social democracy but it has to build a broader coalition to resist the extremism of the right and the new Islamist sectarianism. Calling them what they are would be a start!
3/ the essential formula has to be left on the economy, traditional on defence, crime and foreign policy. I stood for selection 3x on those politics and was twice blocked by the "process" ...
Four moves just happened in the US-Iran battle: Trump leaks peace conditions; Iran makes extreme counter-demands; Trump threatens to destroy energy plants; Iran threatens to destroy Gulf desalination plants... this is "escalate to de-escalate"... 1/
2/ analysis: First off, Trump is explicitly threatening a war crime; the UK should have no part in that. Iran's threat is also criminal. Second - Israel seems absent from the exchange. Third: Iran's maximalist demands are actually a plea for inclusion in a rules based order -
3/ If either escalation threat were carried out we would see an epic refugee and humanitarian crisis: Southern Caucasus, Iraq, Türkiye,Turkmenistan all vulnerable
The British government is not "confused" or unclear - it's been crystal clear it did not take part in the US/Israeli attack on Iran because there is no legal basis to do so; in addition its aims are ill defined... 1/ so Labour MPs need to get real...
2/ We're under political attack from a Tory party that would have willingly breached the UN Charter. We're sticking by the Charter - everything we've done so far is lawful under Article 51...
3/ We're also under attack from the Greens who want to leave NATO, & Plaid and the SNP who want to dismember the United Kingdom. You were elected as social democrats, act like one: get behind the government and deliver a massive majority for strong, lawful conduct during this war
As Morgan McSweeney resigns - here's some basic politics for any member of the Labour Party: 1/ We cannot have a leadership contest now. Why? Because the bond market is a "daily referendum on UK political stability"...the right wing press baying for Keir to resign know this ...
2/ The rat pack of podcasters and YouTubers will have a field day stoking up chaos... a doom loop of bad headlines and soaring bond yields. Therefore Keir Starmer has to remain PM. Let's have a clear report from the ISC - and it should not be difficult to get to the point...
3/ ... did the DV process throw up any problems with Mandelson? Did the security services warn anyone? Once we have that information there is a story to tell about what went wrong ...