"[...] although we do now have actual experience of dealing with first waves (as opposed to just modelling), ‘the science’ is still highly uncertain, with conflicting evidence for the effectiveness of different strategies (mitigation vs. suppression) in different countries."
"it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions but, in brief, the evidence we have is generally from low quality observational data which have significant limitations – and so we don’t know for certain if the reduction in disease was due to the intervention or other factors."
"it is still too early to say which countries’ strategies are correct, and we won’t know until the end of the pandemic."
"The evidence for the effectiveness of local lockdowns is mixed, but they will still have associated harms – and will exacerbate inequalities and so similar comprehensive, cost-benefit analyses are needed – with the input of economists and educationalists as well."
"Finally, having served on the front-line, I am only too aware of the death and suffering that Covid-19 causes – but the harms of a second lockdown would be greater," writes @drraghibali
Essential reading.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Inadequate risk modelling follows as a consequence of the moral hazard implicit in the system.
VAR-based risk models have repeatedly been shown inadequate yet they legitimize under-provisioning for losses, thus increasing risk and inflating profits.
Leverage ratio regulation suffers from the epistemological problem of the social sciences so it is likely to fail.
The accounting provisions of IFRS in relation to mark-to-market and loan losses further promote risk-taking and instability. [I believe this phenomenon has been improved.]
Basel capital adequacy rules failed in the past and will fail again.
Authors: Kevin Dowd, Gordon Kerr, John Butler.
2️⃣Capital-based macroeconomics and the boom-bust cycle
CPI targeting is dangerously misplaced: consumer prices are the final signal at the end of a long production chain.
Monetary fluctuations have material effects on the real structure of prices and capital. Prices become detached from underlying realities such as resource availability, technology and consumer preferences.
Interest rate manipulation by authority discoordinates the economy in time by sending false signals about preferences for saving, borrowing, consumption and investment.
Authors: Jesús Huerta de Soto, Detlev Schlichter, John Butler, Roger Garrison, Kevin Dowd, Mises, Hayek, Steve Horwitz.
🥀 What’s happening is the slow collapse of the post war social democratic system under the weight of state intervention, tax, debt and currency debasement.
🇬🇧Yesterday was the 4th anniversary of the UK leaving the EU.
🌎Brexit has allowed us to unlock our international trade potential meaning that #Wycombe, #Bucks, #NI, and the rest of the UK have easier access to global trade.
👇Take CPTPP, for example, which I long advocated for the UK to join.
📊When the UK fully enters it later this year, our membership will deliver lower tariffs, easier connections, and better trade.
👏We will be the first European country to join #CPTPP.
“CPTPP can provide a better standard of living for people in the UK & across the original member countries. It can deliver free trade plus self-government in this great age of interventionism.”
"I was extremely disappointed to be informed last week about the threatened closure, once again, of High Wycombe’s Driving Test Centre."
"Having been through this before, just over a year ago, I remain determined for High Wycombe to maintain driving tests for the thousands of learner drivers in our town."