Thread by @BBCkatyaadler

Reaction in Brussels to this article 👇 is that either A) Downing Street is sending a message via journalist that it is now willing to make compromises - thereby immediately making a deal more likely (as Eu already said it‘s willing to compromise) OR ../1 thetimes.co.uk/article/a-brex…

B) more downbeat EU assessment is this is a PR exercise by Downing Street. Suggesting compromise (but not coming up with specific political compromise on state aid for example) .. only to use apparent UK flexibility to accuse EU of intransigence if talks ultimately break down /2

Not much trust here in Johnson government. BUT EU leaders still believe PM wants a deal. High level EU insider told me „government „mess“ over exams and covid19 test and trace plus huge strains on UK economy make it more likely the uk government will complete a trade deal“ /3

Everyone here admits a deal is in EU best interest too. But both UK and EU insist they cannot accept a deal „at any price“. So far, so NOT new. Has anything changed then as we head next week into next negotiating round? Yes and no is the (irritating) answer ../4

Sticking points remain the same: state aid (and other level playing field issues), fish and governance. This is why EU diplomats say there’s no point right going into a media blackout negotiating „tunnel“. Only enter those, they say, if the political landing zone is in sight /5

But it’s not yet there on those key sticking points. Both the EU and the UK need to make compromises. On the EU side, some countries suggest the EU could compromise on level playing field demands - thereby protecting UK post #Brexit sovereignty - if and only if - /6

The UK signs up to having a robust arbitration mechanism in the deal. This, so that EU could feel assured that if UK broke competition rules(or vice versa of course), swift action could be taken. Apart from „protecting single market“ EU leaders need to be able to sell an /7

Eventual deal to their business owners and voters back home. NB Big UK trading partners France, Netherlands, Germany already feel the weight of upcoming big elections back home. EU politicians would want the UK to sign up to „principals“ on labour, environment, state aid /8

UK would be free to implement those principles as it saw fit and if EU felt that implementation allowed unfair competition to UK businesses in EU single market, then Brussels could trigger arbitration process. This is a compromise position being floated in some EU circles /9

BUT not all EU countries on board with that compromise (France..) and UK compromise positions not at all clear either. Guesstimate in EU capitals is - if reached- a trade deal (with all the back and forth *needed* between now and then) might be concluded by mid/late November /10

Still time to ratify in European and UK parliament. Aim is to keep deal at a level where it needs approval by all EU leaders but not all national parliaments. Even though what EU and UK still aiming for goes beyond a basic free trade agreement /11

To include fish, police and judicial cooperation, professional qualifications and data flow .. On a technical level there is EU-UK agreement on majority of elements but concensus is: the political decisions that remain will decide if there’s a deal this year or not /12