Latest COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths data for England has been published.
Daily admissions rose rapidly this week, exceeding 300 on Wednesday for the first time since mid-June.
The increase in the moving average implies doubling time of 10-11 days. (1/4)
Based on recent hospital admissions data it looks like the R number was around 1.4 at the end of the first week in September. Over the next week or two we’ll see the impact of schools reopening, but also local lockdowns and other restrictions. (2/4)
Average daily COVID-19 hospital deaths in England has increased from under five on 31 Aug to over 25 in recent days.
For more discussion see my recent @COVID19actuary bulletin which explains how we allow for reporting delays.
I’m planning to reduce the frequency of these updates. When I started them on 7 September this was news, but I think the pattern is now clear now to those who are open to listening. Next update after the weekend. (4/4)
Here is the regional breakdown. Very much a north / south divide (with the exception of London).
To clarify my comment above - we’re not stopping these updates, just dropping to two or three a week as an extra day of data isn’t moving the trend much. (5/4)
I've drawn some heat from anti-vaxx accounts recently. Some just spit obvious lies and hatred, and are quickly blocked. Perhaps more dangerous though are the ones who share bogus data and analysis, that some might not immediately be able to see though. Let's talk about "Ben".
My re-examination of the BMJ Public Health data showed that countries with higher vaccination rates had lower excess deaths, and vice versa. This doesn't prove cause and effect but it's an obvious issue that the authors failed to address.
"Ben" responded to my post with a link to a chart from his own self-published "study" which he claims shows no such relationship in counties of Montana.
So what might be the differences between the countries shown in my analysis and the counties shown in his?
I’m late to this but I wanted to set out some thoughts on the awful @BMJPublicHealth excess deaths article.
Commentary has focussed on media coverage, linking deaths to vaccines, but I want to discuss the article itself, which should not have been published in its current form.
That is not to let @Telegraph @NewYorkPost and others who misreported this off the hook entirely. Reckless reporting has done considerable harm, going well beyond what was claimed in the paper.
More lives will be lost as misinformation fuels vaccine hesitancy.
But as I said below, when @bmj_company distanced itself from media misreporting, this was always going to happen. It's all very well to say the 'study' doesn't establish a link between excess deaths and vaccines, but it's full of inappropriate insinuation.
The first question to ask about excess deaths (or excess anything!) is 'excess over what?'
The new method gives the excess over mortality expected at the start of the year. So expectations for 2024 reflect the fact that we've seen higher mortality rates since the pandemic. 3/17
Our new commentary published in @LancetRH_Europe discusses the ongoing excess deaths in the UK, and for the first time provides granular analysis by age, place and cause.
Excess deaths arise directly and indirectly from the Covid pandemic. This includes:
- increased pressure on NHS urgent care services, resulting in poorer patient outcomes
- direct effects of Covid-19 infection
- disruption to chronic disease prevention, detection and management.
Newly published data from @OHID shows that, from June 2022 to June 2023, excess deaths were highest for ages 50-64, at 15% above normal.
In comparison, excess deaths were 11% higher than expected for under 25s and 25-49s, and were 9% higher for over 65s.
On @BBCMoreOrLess this morning I was delighted to have the opportunity to debunk the most ludicrous claim I’ve yet been asked to address!
John Campbell shared a video with his 2.9 million followers with claims of over 150,000 excess deaths compared to if no-one was vaccinated.
In the video John repeated and endorsed incorrect claims made in an anonymous blog by “the nobody who knows everybody” that there have been over 150,000 excess deaths as a result of people getting vaccinated.
Here is how and why we can be certain this is completely false. 🧵
The claims in the blog: 1. Death rates lower for unvaccinated than vaccinated ❌ 2. If no-one vaccinated there’d have been under 340,000 deaths in a year in England ❌ 3. There were actually 490,000 deaths that year ❌ 4. So over 150,000 excess deaths due to vaccines. ❌