Today @eucopresident will give his third keynote speech on "strategic autonomy" in as many weeks. EU leaders will likely declare that strategic autonomy is a "key objective" of the Union. But what do these Greek-derived words mean? Our newsletter today👇bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
Judging from the draft of the summit’s conclusions, strategic autonomy means, first of all, relative autarky (here’s another Greek word) in certain sensitive industries. Here’s more from our Supply Lines trade newsletter last week: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
This protectionist push may seem weird. In his #UNGA speech, Michel explained that it’s partly a reaction to a world where might makes right and in which rules aren’t respected. It’s what has been described in International Relations as (last Greek word) kraterocracy:
Earlier this month, in its first ever “Strategic Foresight” report, which seeks to prepare policy makers for the challenges of the future, the European Commission said the EU's “economic sovereignty is at stake” due to its reliance on critical imports bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And this is why the push for strategic autonomy has elevated circular economy and green policies into a top security priority: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
But it's not just resource efficiency. The push for strategic autonomy may also be reflected in future legislation that would protect European companies from foreign takeovers: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
So, if I read Michel's speech right, in addition to all of the stuff mentioned above (critical materials autarky), the purpose of the `strategic autonomy' push is the export European standards, values and norms to the rest of the world:
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A key clause from the draft legal text of the latest package of sanctions. The EU is seeking to go beyond an import ban on Russian oil by targeting Moscow’s ability to sell *anywhere in the world*.
So basically vessels owned, chartered, operated or *otherwise controlled* by EU nationals & companies, *no matter if they carry an EU flag or not,* can't transport oil originating in Russia between places *anywhere in the world*. All services, including *insurance*, also banned
So, for example, a shipping tycoon with a Greek passport, no matter what flag his/her vessels carry, can't transport Russian oil between any countries anywhere, not just in Europe. Insurance provisions also banned. Our story on this: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
#Russia was forced to impose capital controls, as the unprecedented measures triggered a run on 🏦 and created a "structural liquidity deficit".
Still, the country's central bank clarified that external debt will continue to be serviced: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
A mass exodus of investors has started, as fund managers restrict access to Russian assets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Now European stocks and U.S futures pare losses, they 're down less than 1%.
Meanwhile, Russia's stock market is closed and the country is facing the risk of a bank run, a rapid sell-off in assets and the steepest depreciation in the ruble since 1998 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Obviously some European companies are suffering, including banks (Raiffeisen), automakers, airlines, big oil (BP!), and luxury. But overall, while Russia is facing existential market stress, things in Europe seem to be under control. For now
If the standoff continues of course, there will be lasting detrimental consequences for all. There's no precedent of an economy so big & so central to the functioning of global supply chains (energy, commodities, food) being completely marginalized and North-Koreanized
European stocks rebound today, and Russian stocks trim some of yesterday's losses.
Worth reading this column by @johnauthers on why markets are saying that Putin will get what he wants (small spoiler: see carve-outs in sanctions) bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
Υπάρχει σοβαρό πρόβλημα με το Ταμείο Ανάκαμψης και τον Κοινοτικό Προϋπολογισμό. Χθες, στη συνεδρίαση της Επιτροπής Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων, έγινε περιγραφή της κατάστασης με δραματικούς τόνους. Ελλάδα και Κύπρος (όπως και οι άλλες χώρες του Νότου) θα δεχθούν πλήγμα σε τρία μέτωπα:
Παρένθεση - η Επιτροπή Μονίμων Αντιπροσώπων στις Βρυξέλλες (COREPER) είναι το επίπεδο όπου τα κράτη-μέλη της ΕΕ λαμβάνουν το 98% των συλλογικών αποφάσεων τους. Οι υπουργοί *συνήθως* βάζουν μία τζίφρα σε αποφάσεις & κείμενα που έχουν ήδη συμφωνηθεί στο COREPER. Εξ ου και..
... ο Μόνιμος Αντιπρόσωπος κάθε κ-μ είναι η πιο σημαντική θέση της διοίκησης, πιο σημαντική από υπουργού. Τα κ-μ είναι ο βασικός νομοθέτης στην ΕΕ (σαν άνω Βουλή). Και οι αποφάσεις τους λαμβάνονται μέσω του COREPER. Κλείνει η παρένθεση. Χθες λοιπόν...