1/2 Fantastic news from #SRB this morning. Having now achieved "the most critical stage" of the licensing for Coringa, the path is now open to a doubling of production.
This company makes $3.5m profit a quarter at 8,500 oz production and $1,710 gold
2/2 I don't believe gold goes below that fig. in Q4 before pushing onto new highs.
A return to 11,000 oz in Q4/Q1 2021 will see SRB making significantly higher profits/cash flows, lowering their debt needs for Coringa.
If all goes to plan, I expect big things in 2021.
2A
A further note on #SRB after yesterday's brief post.
"MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS
For the 3 and 6 month periods
ended 30 June 2020" page 14 ;
Dated 4th August.
2B
"expect that the decision of COEMA will be made in the coming months" Received c. 2 months later.
"Following the award of the LP, management will submit its application for the Installation Licence....hopes can be approved in time..."
2C
"to allow initial plant and site construction to commence prior to the end of 2020."
SRB Economic Assessment RNS dated 21st Oct 2019 ;
"initial processing of ROM feed set to commence approximately nine months" after "mine development start-up."
2D
So Coringa could deliver first gold by early Q4 2021.
Back to the Management discussion page 10 ;
Full production is c. 12k oz. In this price environment, anything over 10k oz is high impact, given Coringa is just $24.7m full at full buil costs.
2E
However, SRB are clear that they have already built a similar mine at Palito, so the "20 per cent contingency on both operating and capital costs" in the Oct PEA, is not to be sniffed at or easily dismissed.
At $20m build costs and debt options for at least half of it,
2F
if not more, SRB at c. $10m (my view) in the bank close of Q3 and only $8.5m of Coringa purchase price left to pay, have good options.
Even 10k oz at c. $1,850 gold, delivers (my view) over $5m to the SRB coffers per quarter.
SRB also still have $10m of a $12m convertable..
2G
...loan from Greenstone, at 76p conversion.
So worst case scenario we are talking 71m shares in issue and Coringa on its was to being built.
But I don't see the need to employ all of it, especially when conversion is well below today's SP, be it appreciation may be in play.
2H
Of course if SRB better that 10k oz or gold pushes above $1,850, then all of the above becomes much easier to solve.
Whatever the case, SRB has clear line of sight to min. 85k oz.
With additional cash resources, I would expect an ore sorter expansion at Coringa, just as...
2I
we saw play out at Palito, which added 8,000 oz to the mine, pushing us to c. 93k oz.
The play with SRB right now is getting the Palito mine back to full production and managing any Covid restrictions.
Achieve that and there's good run to much higher revenues,
2J
at valuation levels, that haven't even taken into account Palito at full production yet because it is yet to be achieved/confirmed but it will come and I am more than happy to wait.
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1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.
With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/ The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.
The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/ The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.
That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.
They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025.
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/ Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.
Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/ Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.
It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
1/9 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/ Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.
So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/ Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.
At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.