Thread by @The_OtherET

To illustrate why #COVID19 PCR testing is flawed, and why we need transparency on cycles from positive tests, here is a hypothetical: say someone took a $1 bill from me and claimed I was distributing cocaine. Most paper bills have over 0.1 micrograms. academic.oup.com/jat/article/20…

To help determine whether I was in possession of cocaine, my accuser has a machine that can multiply any trace amounts found on a dollar bill by two every cycle it ran. You could set it to any number of cycles - but let's say 40, to match the CDC guideline for #COVID19.

So, multiplying 0.1 micrograms by two 40 times is roughly 110,000 grams, or 110 kilograms, or 242 pounds. So the tiny, trace amounts of cocaine found on my $1 bill is now about the same weight as former NFL linebacker Luke Kuechly. I would be going to jail for a long time.

But, what if my accuser showed some restraint, and set their machine to a more reasonable 30 cycles? Well, amplifying 0.1 micrograms by two 30 times is about 107.4 grams, or 0.1 kg, or 0.22 pounds, about the weight of an average banana. Not great, but not a linebacker either.

Going the other way - what about 45 cycles, as some #COVID19 PCR machines are calibrated to? How much cocaine am I in "possession" of then? That's about 7,760 lbs, or the weight of a 2018 GMC Sierra Denali 4 Door Crew Cab 4WD pulling a trailer. Initially from 0.1 mcg on a $1 bill

This is all very silly, obviously, but it illustrates a point - PCR testing works this same way. It is designed to determine a "positive" test after a predetermined number of exponential doubling cycles - some are 30, some 40, some are even 45. Not all "positive" tests are equal.

Yet this binary thinking is being used to drive policy. It's being used to scare people. This is why "case" numbers are junk. Some people are testing positive at 25 Ct (likely a true positive) while others are at 35 (unlikely a true positive) and others near 45 (even less likely)

My point is: if you amplify a tiny, insignificant, nearly untraceable amount of a material enough times in an exponential fashion, you can find it nearly anywhere. This is why everyone who tests positive from PCR has a right to know at what "Ct" number their positive was found.