Using vanilla options trading on @deribit, we can manually price exotic derivatives for #BTC. A digital option (aka binary option) is priced based on the probability that the spot price > strike at maturity. We should expect the price of the digital to equal option delta. 
We can price the digital by constructing unit call spreads which have a max payoff of $1 - this constrains our range so we can focus on interpreting the probabilities. This is done by normalizing the diff between the call spread by an adjustment factor.
For very low strikes, we can see there is some notable difference between the two. This approach is an approximation so we can expect some deviation from the overall delta values. Note - I'm assuming the strike is 11k in this case.
Based on these figures, the market is pricing in a < 15% probability that we see #BTC move above $20k by Dec. 25/2020. Perhaps people are paying more attention to things going on in DeFi...
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