Using vanilla options trading on @deribit, we can manually price exotic derivatives for #BTC. A digital option (aka binary option) is priced based on the probability that the spot price > strike at maturity. We should expect the price of the digital to equal option delta.
We can price the digital by constructing unit call spreads which have a max payoff of $1 - this constrains our range so we can focus on interpreting the probabilities. This is done by normalizing the diff between the call spread by an adjustment factor.
For very low strikes, we can see there is some notable difference between the two. This approach is an approximation so we can expect some deviation from the overall delta values. Note - I'm assuming the strike is 11k in this case.
Based on these figures, the market is pricing in a < 15% probability that we see #BTC move above $20k by Dec. 25/2020. Perhaps people are paying more attention to things going on in DeFi...
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2. Not investment advice - just for fun / educational purposes.
3. Over the past few months there's been a steady rise in 0DTE options trading in SPX. These are super short-dated and there’s a lot of gamma associated with these options. Nearly 40% of SPX option volume was 0DTE in Q2 2022 - this has raised concerns from JPM researchers.
1. Over the past few day's we've noticed some massive trades on @DeribitExchange. Surprisingly some of these trades were executed against limit orders without using RFQs. This gave inspiration to build an order-book scanner which is now open-sourced: github.com/schepal/deribi…
2. The motivation for this whole project was due to some large whale deciding to trade 25k contracts of ETH-30JUN23-400-P on Jan 5/23. Digging into the details we can see this trader decided to sell these options against passive limit orders on Deribit.
3. It's interesting b/c this trader could have gotten much better execution by tapping an OTC desk or @tradeparadigm's RFQ platform. A possible reason is this trader wanted to be completely anon and not attract attention until after the trade was completed (h/t @VidiellaLaura)
1. A few weeks ago we witnessed a duel between @stablekwon and @AlgodTrading in a public wager on LUNA's future price action. In this piece written with @tradeparadigm we analyze how this bet could be priced using options pricing theory + who got rugged on this trade…
1. Over the past few months, DeFi ecosystems have witnessed a surge in structured product platforms - notably option vaults. While the current yields on these vaults can be enticing, we take a closer look at the long-run performance of these strategies: research.ledgerprime.com/p/a-quantitati…
2. Let’s start with a brief overview of the DeFi options space - TVL in 2020 was virtually non-existent but blew up to nearly $1B at the start of 2022. This was primarily due to the surge of activity within the DeFi structured products space. Data Source: @DefiLlama
3. Most of these structured products revolve around covered call options. As a refresher, this strategy involves being long the underlying spot asset and selling a call. This effectively caps the upside price action in exchange for an option premium.
1. One of the best decisions I’ve been lucky to make in 2021 was enrolling in the @TeamChainShot ETH dev bootcamp. Learned a ton of valuable skills which gave me a new appreciation for how all this stuff works. Some thoughts on my experience and advice to those starting out...
2. Why learn solidity in the first place? These were a few of my reasons:
- Be able to build sophisticated on-chain EVM strategies (aspirations of following the path of the sensei @mevintern)
- Become a better investor by understanding the technical nuances of projects
3. Cont...
- @LedgerPrime is going super deep into DeFi so getting familiar on how to interact/build with EVM chains helps us figure out how we can add more value to our VC investments
- And lastly, general curiosity + interest to learn a new skill. The most important reason!
1. Spent the past few weeks going down a rabbit hole learning about MEV and Flashbots — very cool stuff! I was surprised to learn that beneath the surface, Ethereum is lurking with sniper bots waiting for any opportunity to make money. Here’s a TLDR on some research + findings.
3. Whenever a tx is made on ETH, before it is fully mined it sits in a pending pool of txs called the mempool. The mempool is public - this is a problem b/c snipers are looking through these unconfirmed txs for opportunities to re-arrange the txs in the block for their benefit.