'I wont be an apologist for the current #SchwarzeNull system'
'there is an issue with fiscal sustainability, with building future fire power for a country with an ageing population'
'sustainability = fit for the future, not about control or anti-state ideology' (hawks will be hawks)
'true that public investment has fallen, but social spending hasnt, and that shows you can target inequality with fiscal discipline'
we now move into language games: 'we should think carefully about what is public investment'
'German conservative forces are less powerful than those in the US or UK... we collective recognize that we need a strong and efficient state that can deal with climate crisis'
this entire speech is an apology for #SchwarzeNull: 'not entirely the fault of austerity that public investment has fallen dramatically in Germany'
another Picketty public service: 'if r<g, of course we can rethink the fiscal stance away from debt break'
oh no, now we're into 'tweaking the debt break' territory, which I guess is as good as it gets given German political consensus
wow: same former Ministry of Finance/father of debt break 'Fiscal Compact was a stupid German idea pushed to discipline periphery countries'
This session made me think of Hannah Arendt, version 'banality of macroeconomic evil'
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Wolfgang Streeck dijo uno vez que los bancos centrales son la vanguardia del capital financiero dentro del estado, pero no predijo los aplausos tan fuerte en la lucha de clase.
el gobierno de Petro esta en una guerra distributiva con los financieros en dos frentes: 1. Corto plazo, amenaza profitabilidad: gobierno incremento el salario mínimo y se esta negando implementar austeridad fiscal 2. Estructural: re-nacionalizar pensiones privadas.
1. Los financieros quieren austeridad: inflación/deficit = tasas de interés altas y precios de bonos gubernamentales en baja, rendimientos para tenedores de bonos en baja.
Como dijo un bond trader: para los BlackRocks del mundo, crecimento bajo= rendimientos altos
Estoy en una conferencia sobre política monetaria en Colombia, donde hay una lucha abierta entre el Ministerio de Hacienda y el banco central, que ha aumentado las tasas (antes de las elecciones)
el Ministro de Hacienda está cuestionando una política monetaria uberhawkish
estamos en un mundo nuevo post liberal donde intensifican las luchas entre gobiernos confrontados con choques (de oferta) y bancos centrales independientes que, para estabilizar, solo pueden/saben subir las tasas de intereses
Jay Powell/ Fed have quietly caved to Trump. US central bank independence is now a smokescreen.
not because the Fed lowered interest rates yesterday, as Trump demanded.
Less publicised, but more important, is the Fed decision to purchase USD 40bn of Treasury bills monthly.
The Fed calls this Reserve Management Purchases but it's central bank support for government debt (and for Trump's policies more broadly), a form of monetary-fiscal coordination pervasive in the age of fiscal dominance after WW2.
How much is USD 40bn? Recall the recent hype around stablecoin issuers - the companies that Bessent claimed would strengthen US Treasury demand.
These bought USD 40 bn Treasuries over June 2024-June 2025. The Fed would buy in a month what Tether + Circle buy in a year.
Rentoul doesnt know it but his 'good grief' reflects a monetarist choice of Bank - government relationship.
popularised by Milton Fridman, monetarism wants central banks FULLY independent from democratic decisions.
before 2008, this divorce was fully operational
the monetarist divorce unravelled during the 2008 global financial crisis.
central banks HAD TO buy government bonds and stabilise the financial system because these bonds are the arteries of modern finance, without them, booom.
#WallStreetConsensus & its failure to mobilise trillions in @FT
4 things missing:
a) hegemonic dominance of 'mobilising private finance' in development/climate
b) asking why hegemony
c) mushrooming scaling up initiatives
d) do we want success?
a) Mobilising private finance remains global game - (Bridgetown, Biodiversity COP16, 4th Financing for Development conf) & national game (UK Labour gov, Brazil/Colombia/Chile decarbonisation).
*The world's most powerful political narrative that doesnt deliver
b) hegemonic not (just) because Big Finance is powerful, but postneoliberal, transformative state cant get rid of neoliberal macro - independent central bank dominating fiscal.
without macroinstitutional change- How do we pay for transformation- only one answer: private finance
when Big Finance occupies the state and takes over the social contract, nurses struggle, grandparents struggle, parents struggle, renters struggle, private equity flourishes.