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therealarod1984 Profile picture
@therealarod1984
Sep 29, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Looks like the NFL read our article on Cycle Thresholds! A link to an interview with the NFL C.M.O. & their Medical Advisor in next tweet:

* C-19 detection > 34 cycles = zero infection
* NFL doesn't want false positives to stop down their game

1/n
rationalground.com/why-mass-pcr-t…
Here is the transcript. Highlights:

* They track historical pos%
* A test run w/ high pos% = red flag
* Low CT positive = infectious
* They have a CT cutoff - I guarantee its not 40
* Tests w/ high CT (~30) = red flag, stop, do a retest regime

2/end

playsmartplaysafe.com/newsroom/state…
I should correct myself here and say > 34 cycles = not infectious, not transmittable. No live culture after 34 cycles. Its a remnant of past exposure, almost a AB test at that point. That is detailed in the article.
Will be interesting to see how this plays out in the next 24 hours, as they work through their confirmation process.

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
Oct 22
Battleground states - 2024 President
10/22/2024 Summary

1/n
* Summarizes the analysis I've done on all 7 states
* Spread & Movement is based on last 10 polls in each state
* Trump has a clear lead in 5 of 7 battlegrounds
* Movement is to Trump in 5 of 7 battlegrounds

1/n Image
Battleground state summary - Page 2

2/n
Comparing polls on Oct 22 of both 2016 & 2020 with their final results:

* Trump's Oct 22, 2016 polling underestimated him by an average of 5.7 points
* Trump's Oct 22, 2020 polling underestimated him by an average of 3.1 points

2/n Image
Battleground state summary - Page 2

* Avg movement 2016+2020 - Trump +4.4
* If I do regression, 2016 --> 2020 --> 2024 (polls getting better at capturing Trump Vote), I can project 2024 movement of Trump +1.9
* Regression projects Trump wins all 7 by 2.0 to 3.5 points

3/end Image
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Nov 22, 2022
"Random Dude on Twitter" is my second nickname. "Random Dude on Twitter" has been right A LOT. Let's look at some receipts, shall we?

THREAD

1/n
Let's see...."Random Dude on Twitter" predicted Texas Hospitalization peak to the day not just once....

2/n
....but TWICE. In fact, this first time I did it, I called myself "Random Dude on Twitter."

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Nov 21, 2022
11/21 - Domestic Passenger Traffic: Pre-Thanksgiving Edition

* Continued strengthening of traffic numbers the past month
* Within a few points of clawing all the way back
* Forecasting through the Thanksgiving Holiday

THREAD

1/n
11/21 Airlines Page 2

* Total number of passengers who have flown in the past 30 days is 96.3% of 2019. In the past 3 months its 94.6%
* You can see it in the 7DMA % vs 2019 chart, the blue line has been all over that 95% line since Labor Day
* Today's 7DMA is 97.45%

2/n Image
11/21 Airlines Page 3

* As I've stated before, comparisons between 2019 & 2022 are tricky. Because Holidays shift dates and/or days every year. 2020 was a leap year, so +2 days right there
* These 2 charts compare 1) #s as TSA reports them & 2) #s as reported historically

3/n ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
May 17, 2022
5/16 - Texas C19: Omicron BA.Whatever

THREAD:

* Positive tests continue their slow rise into the mid 2K per day range
* Hospitalization leading indicators showing a very gentle uptick. Spring mini-bump may be here
* C19 Fatalities in April 2022 will be an all time low

1/n
5/16 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

As of 5/6:

* Positivity rate @ 6.39%
* 2188 positive tests 7DMA, rising to mid 2Ks in next 5-7 days. At height of Omicron that number was 80K
* Testing 7DMA running a consistent historically low 34K per day.

2/n
5/16 - Testing & Cases

* 34K tests per day is 14% of what TX was receiving at the height of Omicron
* Interesting to see the interaction of end of school with mild spread. Will testing rise?
* Batch reported cases in line with testing, now at 2.5K per day & slowly rising

3/n
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
May 11, 2022
5/11 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

* 3 Weeks since federal mask mandate was struck down
* 8 straight weeks of 2022 7DMA traffic being north of 2 million and also being between 87-91% of 2019 traffic
* Demand is north of 100% of 2019, but supply still isn't there

THREAD

1/n
5/11 Airlines Page 2

The 7 day moving avg continues in this consistent narrow band, currently sitting at 2.10 Million passengers per day the past 7 days, and at 89% of 2019 numbers.

Expect these numbers to rise significantly through Memorial Day.

2/n ImageImage
5/11 Airlines Page 3

Long term traffic numbers are strong - the 70 day Moving Avg is at an all time C19 high of 2.09M and slowly rising - basically inline with the 7 day average.

The industry is basically back to what it was pre-covid, just a little smaller.

3/n ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Apr 11, 2022
4/10 - Texas C19 Update: Still nothing

THREAD:

* Slowly rising positivity rate plus falling testing = same number of positive tests er'e day
* Hospitalizations continue to set new all time lows
* A couple of weird numbers to explain

Let's go through it!

1/n
4/3 - Testing takes ~10 days for a date to be ~90% in.

* 2 tweets on testing today

As of 3/31:
* Up to 2.48% from 2.14% last week
* Day number 24 below the previous all time low of 2.60% set on 6/7/21
* So its slowly climbing but because fewer people are getting tested...

2/n
4/3 - Testing Part 2

* The number of total positive tests has been running right between 1100 and 1150 per day for the past 2 weeks.
* Outside of 4th of July 2021 and Winter Freeze 2021, we've never seen PCR testing this low. Nobody is getting tested right now.

3/n
Read 10 tweets

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