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Simon Moores Profile picture
@sdmoores
Sep 30, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Tesla LFP Model 3 (Standard Range) Made in China are rolling off Shanghai now.

LFP is naturally cobalt free anyway: balancing low cost (using iron and phosphate) with range is key here... it’s not about cobalt

Read Tesla’s strategy: benchmarkminerals.com/membership/lfp…
These LFP prismatic cells for Model 3 are the CATL deal @elonmusk was referring to on Battery Day
The long range Made in China Model 3 uses the LG Chem 2170s 811 chemistry - the other contract Elon was referring to.
This means Tesla has battery cell deals with Panasonic (Suminoe, Japan and Gigafactory), CATL (China), LG Chem (China) and of course the 4680s themselves in Texas.
Yet it won’t be anywhere near enough. Tesla’s biggest risk is cell supply, cell supply’s biggest risk is raw material supply, especially lithium and nickel

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More from @sdmoores

Simon Moores Profile picture
Apr 6, 2023
Tesla’s Master Plan 3 believes it will take $1.4 Trillion dollars to invest in critical mineral mining, refining and cathode / anode making for the energy transition.

ie 240TWh of deployed batteries around the world.

$2Tr in gigafactories and battery recycling
All in all to reach net zero with the technologies we have today Tesla and Elon Musk have laid down a $3.5 Trillion dollar gauntlet for the energy transition
The numbers are almost bang on the low end what we have at @benchmarkmin - we estimate $3.5 to $5bn

We anticipate that mining will need the lions share of this investment

Mining, Refining, Chemicals: ~$2.5 to $3Trillion

Battery making / Recycling: $1.5 Tr to $2Trillion
Read 7 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Apr 5, 2023
Benchmark Lithium Prices from 2016 to now:

I’ve marked up on the chart below the high and low of Benchmark’s global weighted average lithium carbonate price in big red lines:

High: ~$70/kg
Low: ~$8/kg
Today (dashed red line): ~$55/kg

@benchmarkmin Image
The chart shows a few things:

That high and volatile lithium prices are here to stay. High from a perspective if you were in the industry in 2016, low if you joined in the last two years.
That volatility is the name of the game now as lithium rushes to scale supply from a wide variety of sources all with a wide variety of costs to get out of the ground.

No longer do we look to the Atacama as the low cost base line for our narrative like back in 2016, but to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 6 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Apr 5, 2023
Benchmark interview with Wang Xiaoshen, president @GanfengOfficial - one for the very few true pioneers in #lithium.

On how low #lithium prices can go:

“It’s hard to say. These days people are looking at 150,000 RMB ($21,807 a tonne), that has a bigger chance to be achieved,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
On 2022 v 2023:

“Last year was booming … Lots of battery companies and OEMs were very aggressive about expansion so they gave big numbers for requirements for upstream resources like lithium, encouraging everyone to expand, especially lepidolite and DSO [Direct Shipping Ore]… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
On lepidolite in China:

“Below 100,000 RMB only a few and smaller volume [mines] can be justified. But we believe the big volume that everyone was expecting would probably be in trouble.”
Read 6 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Oct 13, 2022
Lithium Prices <thread>

Morgan Stanley et al putting out lithium price decline narratives.

There is zero industry evidence to suggest lithium’s price decline from all time highs is today or even tomorrow

(TBD @ Benchmark Week, 14-18 Nov, LA > events.benchmarkminerals.com/event/759109c6… )
This is at time when lithium prices are at an all time high & stable. There isn’t even a murmur of price declines as all new lithium carbonate and hydroxide supply is snapped up.
It doesn’t take a genius to make a call that lithium prices will eventually come down.

Lithium is one the longest price rallies in any “commodity” in recent memory.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Sep 11, 2022
<thread> Tesla & #Lithium - a decade in the making

A lithium refinery has been in Tesla & Elon Musk’s @elonmusk thinking for ~10 yrs now & in (a serious way) for the best part of 3 yrs

The logic is sound

2020: 70-80% of lithium ion battery costs are raw materials

2010: 20-30%
Tesla has filed to build a lithium hydroxide refining facility in Texas (Gulf Coast).

This is a revisiting of its 2020 plan to build a spodumene conversion facility to make lithium hydroxide at #GigaTexas

Originally planned to launch Q4 2022.
This #GigaTexas lithium refinery would have been using a new hydromet process, as not to be reliant on sulphuric acid.

Our estimation was a smaller refinery to start with 15,000 tpa lithium hydroxide. Could now be 25,000tpa

@benchmarkmin story>>>

benchmarkminerals.com/membership/exc…
Read 24 tweets
Simon Moores Profile picture
Jul 21, 2022
Ford Flurry:

✅ Ford signs major deal with China’s CATL

✅ Locks in 60GWh of battery cells out to 2023 (variety of suppliers)

✅ Ford plan to establish 40GWh LFP capacity in North America (Canada?) - CATL Gigafactory?

✅ Mustang Mach E to use LFP

✅ EV CAGR 90% to 2026
Interesting to note: Ford says it has secured 70% of its lithium ion battery needs by 2026

To support 2m run rate of EV production.

Assuming this is full EVs this is 160GWh of cells a year by 2026.

This year the lithium ion battery industry will be ~600GWh total
@Ford signs Utah #lithium MOU with @compassminerals

businesswire.com/news/home/2022…
Read 6 tweets

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