1) Your job is align with the market. It is not to be a mind-reader, a forecaster of economies, an analyst
2) To win, you have to have 4 things correct in YOUR trading timeframe:
1. Direction 2. Stop size 3. Entry location 4. Targets
3) Our goal as traders is to SAMPLE the market as many times as possible and at the lowest risk that fits the time frame and product
4) NONE of this matters if we aren't here tomorrow because we blew up today or ran out of money. So it is a cliche, but is the truth: RISK COMES FIRST.
5) If I suck at managing risk but have the greatest trading plan and edge in the world, then I might as well go to Vegas...at least the drinks are free while I lose. Note: This is the 3rd time risk control is mentioned here
6) I'm not as good as my last trade. Living this way is intolerable, volatile and will wreck my psychology. I'm as good as MY BEST EXECUTION of my edge. Period. Win, lose or scratch, I executed the trade according to plan and it had a 50/50 chance. I CANNOT CHANGE THIS FACT!
7) The outcome of the very next trade is CERTIFIABLY AND POSITIVELY RANDOM. I can't change that. So all I can manage is risk (mentioned for the 4th time here). So randomness and luck are built into the game.
8) If randomness is built into the game, then my stop is simply the price of the token I need to determine if the next round will pay me or cost me. My stop is just a fee to participate. Nothing in life exists without a fee to participate (opportunity cost or time cost mostly)
9) To survive all of the above, we must have an understanding of how our market/product trades, what moves it and how we align ourselves WITH IT not it with us. It isn't personal. The market is a force of nature, align or get run over. Period. No sense arguing.
10) Only ur family cares abt how u feel. Market doesn't. That isn't its job. Market is infinitely providing opportunity to win or lose. Relentless like the ocean or the wind. Our job is to find our way to use its force to carry our position to profit with minimum risk.
11) Most people personalize and complicate it beyond what it really is. That's part of learning. But we become pros when we shed the complications & see the auction then layer a way (setups) to engage & manage trades
12) We can't study our losses away. So many people fail by trying & trying. They are just there in the randomness. Stick to the plan (if we have one).
13) HAPPY SURFING. In the end, we can't take it with us. It is just a journey. Trading is just one heck of a ride and a supreme mentor/educator about who we really are. We can always reason away our bullshit in a regular job. The market doesn't allow it.
14) And finally, let's forgive and love ourselves. We do our best. That's all we can do. Enjoy the suffering and the victories alike. Even in quitting trading, we are A LOT wiser for it. Again, we do the same in real life, the results are just not immediate.
An observation: The complexity with which #traders often approach the market is sometimes impressive. It really is simple;but not easy.
IMO, any approach that doesn't appreciate the basic auction mechanism is likely to result in layer over layer of derivatives of price & volume.
Learning the auction is key for every time frame. The fundamental basis from which to form a bias. Then add indicators and tools to taste to hone in on execution.
To me, it often seems backwards. Tons of stuff on a chart to where we can't see what price is signaling.
Big picture auction ➡️ Form a bias ➡️ Map key prices in our time frame and risk ➡️ use something to make execution routine ➡️ wrap it all up in a good R-Factor ➡️ Edge should show with large enough sample.
Anecdote: A friend of mine who I felt was intelligent sold his 3 yr old Acura for $12k over book value. He has been bragging about it for 2 wks. He now needs a car and can't find... (cont)
a "reasonable" deal. Very frustrated. He can't believe how much dealers are trying to "rip him off" and how "the system is rigged". Lots of conspiracy theories...which has resulted in me losing respect for the guy. I guess the (cont)
laws of supply/demand pricing should only apply to him when he is selling at a premium, but somehow they are a conspiracy when he is the buyer.
So it has become painfully obvious to me that the fashion now is that (cont)
Not directed at anyone in particular, but there is a lot of well-intentioned #trading advice on fintwit about avoiding FOMO, being patient, reading price, etc. However, the underlying issues aren't being addressed: [a short thread]
If I'm being patient, then what am I looking for to act?
If I'm reading price, what is it exactly that I'm reading?
The core issues for most are no longer under-capitalization and leverage (thanks to the push for micros that finally came to fruition). The underlying issues that must be resolved are...
A fundamental question that is overlooked as traders jump into indicators, tools, chart types, patterns, moon cycles or whatever: why should the market reward your trade? Why here? Why long or short? For what target and at what stop? Cont... #trading
What inefficiency are we exploiting? Why is this price unfair? Is our evidence based in fact? Statistics? Or.... #trading
Is it because our moving average crossed & that's all there is? Or maybe some dot showed up on our chart?
Think about it: Everyone is seeing the same price, time and volume. These are the elements.
Knowing that, what is it we are doing that deserves to be rewarded? #trading
Based on comments made on #TraderBite this morning about the trend up yesterday and how it contained a TON of delta divergence sell signals and seemed to rise on negative delta. Many have emails, DMed, etc. Saying they were the "imbecile" selling all the way up....
So I get why this happens and how enticing it is to try to call a top and catch that turn for a super-dose of dopamine and euphoria. BUT this is not trading. Not by a mile. It isn't stupidity, it is just not recognizing where we are on the map and staying objective....