Thread by @sanjeevsanyal

Most of the discussion on Atmanirbhar Bharat has tended to focus on trade & industrial policy. This is not suprizing. However, there is an component that is less understood or discussed - #localism and decentralization. 1/n

The emphasis on decentralised systems is directly related to complex system theory. A key insight of complexity framework is that the world is non-deterministic. Hence, all top-down management is about creating simple "rules-of-the-game" that broadly work most of the time. 2/n

In complex systems, the behaviour of a component is only loosely linked to the whole. So specific outcomes should rarely be attempted top down. Instead, targeted outcomes should be attempted at the local level. 3/n

Now I hope it should be clear why the major top-down reforms are general frameworks - GST, a simple set of labour laws, etc. Specific interventions, in contrast, are localised - to a location/sector etc. 4/n

Hope that the contrast with meticulous "master-planning" is clear. Plans can be done at micro level, but not at macro level in a complex system. At macro level, one creates a general framework and "manages" the unpredictable evolution of the system. 5/n

Indian urban planning is a good illustration. Cities and buildings built before 1950 have a local character (#localism). Once standardised building codes were introduced, the same concrete boxes were built from Chennai to Guwahati with no regard for climate or culture 6/n

The result is 70 years of ugly architecture and drab urban hubs that have no link to local cultural or climatic requirements. This is why India still depends on colonial or pre-colonial urban hubs. Virtually no iconic building in any city was built after independence 7/n

This does not mean that one does not ever target outcomes. But this should be done "locally" - say a Gift City or a "champion" sector. The key is to define & limit it. A few large SEZs will work. Many small ones will not. 8/n

A key component of the above system is contract enforcement. This is what allows the decentralized components to coordinate with each other. Hence complexity thinking leads directly to simple rules and speedy legal process. End 9/n