The @imperialcollege #REACT Survey has published an interim report of its 5th round. The headline is that it suggests R has fallen sharply in recent weeks, and could now be around 1.1 . Let's take a more detailed look... 1/9 
The interim report covers 85,000 samples over the period 18th-26th Sept, so is very up to date. It found 363 positive samples, an infectivity of 0.55% (over 1 in 200) , consistent with the latest @ONS report. That's the highest since the survey started in May. 2/9
Round 4 put R at 1.7 for late Aug/early Sep. These results show a clear slowing, and the report notes other indicators (eg calls to the NHS) are consistent with this direction. The CI is wider though as this is an interim report, so the sample size is reduced. 3/9
We've heard a lot about the increase being led by younger ages, and the report confirms this with around 1% infectivity was found for 18-24 yr olds. But the rises are seen at older ages too, where the consequences are more serious. 4/9
Similarly the survey confirms the regional variation we've seen with hospital admissions, with the virus having spread much more quickly in the north. All areas are growing though, so there's no room for complacency elsewhere. 5/9
The continuing increased prevalence amongst ethnic minorities is noted, with black and Asians close to double that for whites. Remember that outcomes are worse for these groups too, so the results are even more concerning. 6/9
The report suggest that increased public awareness in recent weeks may have resulted in greater compliance with social distancing and other measures (eg hand washing), along with local and national restrictions imposed by govt, and these are now having an effect. 7/9
Finally, it cautions that (consistent with the findings that R is still above 1), a redoubling of public health efforts (and I would add, both of govt and the public) is needed to return the epidemic to a declining phase. 8/9
This interim report by @imperialcollege is very welcome, given the critical point we are now at. The final report will be published next week, which with much more data should give a much narrower CI for the all important R number. Thanks to all involved in the research. 9/9 ENDS
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