David H. Montgomery Profile picture
Oct 1, 2020 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
New #COVID19 cases are up a little bit, but controlling for testing volume, positivity rate in MN is actually trending down. Yes, case counts are way up — but so is testing, which explains a LOT of it. ImageImageImage
The testing increase in MN is real and notable. In late April, MN began a sustained rise in testing from an average of about 1,500 per day to nearly 15,000/day by July 4. But then growth slowed a ton, and stayed slow for months.

The last few weeks have finally seen more growth: Image
New hospitalization rates remain their highest in months, a sign that MN is seeing a real growth of its outbreak, even if not as dramatic as case #s & positivity seem (ignore the little drops at the end of the line — those are data artifacts from reporting delays): Image
All parts of rural Minnesota are now reporting higher case growth rates than the Twin Cities metro: Image
The lack of increase in cases among Minnesotans under 20 remains remarkable: Image
Two days of relatively reported high death counts have pushed the trend line up. Still, despite a few spikes in recent months, the 7-day average of new daily deaths hasn’t risen about 10 since June. Image

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More from @dhmontgomery

May 18
“No principles, any methods, but no flowery language — always Yes or No, though you could only count on him if it was No.” — Clement Attlee on Stalin
“Soviet biologists were instructed to adopt the theories of the charlatan Lysenko… to disastrous effect… It is significant that Stalin left his nuclear physicists alone & never presumed to second guess *their* calculations. Stalin may well have been mad, but he was not stupid.”
“Fortunately for the West, American popular culture had an appeal that American political ineptitude could do little to tarnish.”
Read 51 tweets
Feb 15
I finally hit on why "Hazbin Hotel" is leaving me so cold. I love a stylized sitcom about depraved souls in the afterlife struggling toward redemption: It's called "The Good Place," & while it lacked raunch, songs & art deco animation, it had sophisticated multi-layered writing.
Partly this is a difference in execution — if you hired Michael Schur to script-doctor the dialogue on "Hazbin Hotel" you'd get a much better show — but in large part it's just intent. TGP was aiming at the border between middle- and high-brow; HH is aiming at middle-low.
I see everything "Hazbin Hotel" is trying to do, and can appreciate it in an abstract sense. It's not a terrible show, it's just, like, a C+. It's competently done and has a few interesting ideas, but (4-5 episodes in) doesn't display any real verve or finesse in its writing.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 21, 2023
You BET we polled people about #Napoleon. On the eve of a new biopic, most Americans don't know very much about Bonaparte, and what they do know, they don't especially like.

My story for @YouGovAmerica, with lots of charts: today.yougov.com/society/articl…

Image
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The U.S. actually has the highest rates of considering Napoleon's legacy to be "negative" of any of 8 countries YouGov polled. That includes several other countries that Napoleon actually invaded, humiliated and occupied.

today.yougov.com/society/articl…
Image
What DO Americans know — or think they know — about Napoleon? Well, I regret to inform you that one of the most popular descriptors was "short," with no real difference between people who said they knew a fair bit about Napoleon and those who didn't.

today.yougov.com/society/articl…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Oct 26, 2023
This is a fun one. I had @YouGovAmerica ask 29,000 people how they organize their books.

- 29% don't organize their books
- 22% sort by genre
- 19% alphabetize
- 3% sort by color

But it turns out this depends HEAVILY on how many books you own. My story: today.yougov.com/society/articl…
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cc @WaltHickey @pbump @PatrickRuffini @goodreads @DanielBGreene @aedwardslevy @NateSilver538
How many books do people own, anyway? My @YouGovAmerica survey found most people own at least SOME physical books, but most of these collections are pretty small. 20% of Americans own between 1 & 10 books.

My full story with more data on book ownership: today.yougov.com/society/articl…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 5, 2023
NEW: Full-time caregiving is the #1 reason prime-age Americans don't work. In my latest for the @MinneapolisFed, I break down the stats behind this key demographic group:

- mostly parents
- mostly but decreasingly women
- mostly happy staying home
minneapolisfed.org/article/2023/w…
Among adults age 25-54, women are 90% of full-time caregivers. But that's down from 96% two decades ago, while the share of full-time caregivers who are men has doubled.

https://t.co/xWLDUpz3cPminneapolisfed.org/article/2023/w…
Social conventions, health and individual preferences all impact parents' choices when one of them is going to stay home. But sometimes finances drive the decision, and in opposite-sex prime-age couples, men are twice as likely to be the top earner:

https://t.co/hDeK6hSAySminneapolisfed.org/article/2023/w…
Read 7 tweets
May 19, 2023
When the @Suntimes ran an undercover bar to catch sleazy officials: "I think one of the things that amazed us is that these inspectors sold out public safety on the cheap. They were not taking huge amounts. We were told to leave $10 for one inspector & $25 for another inspector."
@Suntimes From this oral history (via @kottke): topic.com/the-story-behi…
@Suntimes @kottke Also: "[Columnists] smiled & gave me a thumbs-up. And I thought, ‘Well, that’s nice! They liked it!’ And it made me feel good. I was later told they gave me a thumbs-up b/c I got the word ‘ass’ in the paper. They’d been trying to get the word ‘ass’ past the copy desk for years."
Read 5 tweets

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