[@benchmarkmin thread] Pertinent points on Tesla’s plan for produce lithium, the first auto maker to do so....
New lithium hydroxide facility expect to be co-located next to Terafactory in Austin
Tesla will build the USA’s first battery materials hub which in addition to lithium is expected to include cathode and nickel chemical production feeding into 4680 battery cell production
Tesla will convert spodumene concentrate from a variety of sources around the world into lithium hydroxide
Benchmark understands that Tesla will use a hydrometallurgical process to turn its spodumene concentrate into lithium hydroxide, eliminating the use of sulphuric acid.
Not only will it allow Tesla to control costs at this supply chain step, it will once again see the spodumene trade flows point towards the USA instead of China, a market that has dominated spodumene conversion for a generation
Due to inactivity in developing new raw material supply and the lack of a long term strategy, we are starting to see this sway of industrial power move downstream towards the auto OEMs.
Tesla’s Master Plan 3 believes it will take $1.4 Trillion dollars to invest in critical mineral mining, refining and cathode / anode making for the energy transition.
ie 240TWh of deployed batteries around the world.
$2Tr in gigafactories and battery recycling
All in all to reach net zero with the technologies we have today Tesla and Elon Musk have laid down a $3.5 Trillion dollar gauntlet for the energy transition
The numbers are almost bang on the low end what we have at @benchmarkmin - we estimate $3.5 to $5bn
We anticipate that mining will need the lions share of this investment
That high and volatile lithium prices are here to stay. High from a perspective if you were in the industry in 2016, low if you joined in the last two years.
That volatility is the name of the game now as lithium rushes to scale supply from a wide variety of sources all with a wide variety of costs to get out of the ground.
No longer do we look to the Atacama as the low cost base line for our narrative like back in 2016, but to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
“It’s hard to say. These days people are looking at 150,000 RMB ($21,807 a tonne), that has a bigger chance to be achieved,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
On 2022 v 2023:
“Last year was booming … Lots of battery companies and OEMs were very aggressive about expansion so they gave big numbers for requirements for upstream resources like lithium, encouraging everyone to expand, especially lepidolite and DSO [Direct Shipping Ore]… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
On lepidolite in China:
“Below 100,000 RMB only a few and smaller volume [mines] can be justified. But we believe the big volume that everyone was expecting would probably be in trouble.”
This is at time when lithium prices are at an all time high & stable. There isn’t even a murmur of price declines as all new lithium carbonate and hydroxide supply is snapped up.
It doesn’t take a genius to make a call that lithium prices will eventually come down.
Lithium is one the longest price rallies in any “commodity” in recent memory.