BREAKING: PM spokesperson says Boris Johnson will speak to European Commission President tomorrow to discuss state of EU-UK trade and security talks. QUESTION: Will they announce enough progress being made that negotiating teams can now enter a media black-out tunnel? /1
Today the two chief negotiators David Frost (UK) and Michel Barnier (EU) meet after this week’s negotiating round. There have been rumours of progress on key sticking points coming out of UK. Not confirmed EU side so far /2
Unusual that there is no Barnier press conference today. There normally is after negotiating rounds. Could be bc there is an EU leaders summit going on separately in Brussels (discussing Turkey, Belarus and more) and EU wants to avoid press conference clashes OR /3
There is real progress going on in negotiations but need (either optics or content) the political involvement of PM + Commission President. Also if progress is in process of being made (ie politically difficult compromises),the two sides won’t want to come under press scrutiny /4
Media likely to scrutinise/attack compromises -making it harder for politicians to agree them. This goes for the PM -who could (depending what’s agreed) be accused of compromising on #Brexit by some media and MPs in own party - but also for EU leaders like Emmanuel Macron. /5
Macron is under pressure to compromise his maximalist position on fishing rights for EU fishermen in U.K. waters but it’s politically v sensitive for him. He already has 2022 presidential elections on his mind. Key rivals could accuse him of sacrificing French interests. /6
The why’s and what’s of tomorrow’s meeting is speculation for now. The only thing we know for sure is: both sides say they want a deal. But both say not at any price. If a deal does eventually emerge, compromises will have to have been made by both sides /7
NB I wrote ‘meeting’ in /7 . Should read ‘conversation’. No suggestion they are meeting in person at this stage /8
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