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Oct 2, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
1/8
Key takeaway from #AVCT Interims presentation and a point I have been focusing in on for a while.



The enclosed slide delves more into "Avacta's Product Strategy."

Whilst home testing is of course an ultimate goal,
2/8
it is for me a complete bonus to the investment case. A free shot if you will and not necessary for the success of this test, to be truly enormous.

When discussing this slide Dr Smith says about professional use being ;
3/8
"far more likely to be professional use around workplace testing and that involves having a trained technician or healthcare worker on site, which many companies are planning to do."

Now ask yourself, how does AVCTs CEO know so many companies are planning to have...
3/8
...healthcare personnel on site to conduct these tests?

Furthermore, what does that say about the necessity of focusing in on CONDOR and UK Gov orders?

Clinical validation for professional use, sits fully under the control of AVCT and their manufacturing partners
4/8
and is coming in Q4.

Remember, back on 20th May, Medusa agreed exclusive world roll out for the consumer test but only ;

"non-exclusive rights to supply the tests to businesses for workforce testing."

What that slide demonstrates is that the workforce testing market...
5/8
...is up first and AVCT have clearly known that for some time.

So much so that the BBI Solutions app is in play, so completely stand alone in terms of what Medusa are putting together.

However, simply writing off Medusa is for me a mistake. They can push further sales...
6/8
...to businesses and so it is another pipeline and entity, working to sell AVCT tests, which can never be a bad thing. In addition, they are clearly blooding their teeth with Covid tests and being set up for the next phase, post Covid.

See below.
7/8
One question remains on where AVCT wants to go with this now?

Will they sell direct or will it be other parties?

But its not what's key right now.

Whats key is that a very large market is about to be opened up in Q4 and it won't be affected by UK Gov.

Unless of course,
8/8
UK Gov has its very own FOMO and pushes the buy button earlier than it should.

They've form after all with tests that cannot do what AVCT is advertising they will.

All of which creates a wonderful arena of competition for AVCT and why more partners are clearly on the way.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Apr 4
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image
2/
A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
3/
Up to the end of 2023, the mine has produced 192,503 oz and sold 179,138 oz.

This means 13,365 oz sit in inventory as of 1st Jan 2024 with a current value at $2,100/oz of c. $28m.

What this also means is that Segilola still has 296,497 oz of gold to produce.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
2/
Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/9
In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets
Jul 5, 2022
1/7
Based on what I have just talked about if #HMI had received all the monies from its sales in 2021 then this would have amounted to $4.52m and the business would have been profitable at the operating level in 2021.
2/
What's more, the $4.454m paid out in 2021 reflects more accurately the true costs to run the business over the course of one year.

One cannot conclude exactly how much HMI produced in 2021 because the cash receipts reflect payment dates and not when the goods were received.
3/
Inventory was fairly minimal which reflects an operation that leans towards producing to order.

However, the costs associated with administration clearly eat up the vast majority of this with the consolidated statement accounting for c. $3.85m in the period.
Read 7 tweets

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