1/7 All these months, I have tried to keep things in perspective on how big an opportunity these Covid tests, could be for #AVCT.
The phrase "if it sounds to be good to be true," kept coming to mind.
Given where we are in the process and what AVCT presented on 29th Sept,
2/7 I think I am now entitled to start factoring in few of my grander questions.
If AVCT can set itself on a path to even half of what has been presented, so 50-60m tests per month, be it directly involved or not,
3/7 what does that say about where they can take the therapeutics business post AVA6000 first (assumed successful) read out?
How many therapies can be tackled at once?
What does it say about their standing in the diagnostic and even cancer therapies market place?
4/7 What does it about how their Affimer platform will be viewed and indeed how enviously it will be pursued.
What does it say about direct diagnostic test interest?
What does it say about increased partnered interest in that business?
What does it say about the AVCT SP?...
5/7 and the company's ability to survive M&A and what its valuation could end up being?
If this pandemic has taught the sector anything, its that it needs to be prepared for the next one.
There's no faster diagnostic gun in the West, than the Affimer one and that...
6/7 was prior to expansion of their facilities, prior to ISO 13485 accreditation and prior to completing this process and learning from it.
AVCT is about to receive the biggest endorsement their business could ever hope for, on the greatest stage their sector has ever known.
7/7 Call that a ramp, call it what you want to but there is no denying how close they now truly are, to achieving a monumental goal, which is why they stated ;
"it will be a very exciting and genuinely transformational year ahead for Avacta"
You're no kidding.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.
With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/ The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.
The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/ The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.
That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.
They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025.
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/ Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.
Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/ Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.
It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
1/9 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/ Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.
So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/ Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.
At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.