Samneet Chepal Profile picture
Oct 2, 2020 6 tweets 4 min read Read on X
1/ Learned a lot about variance swaps by reading through @EmanuelDerman's awesome paper. This inspired me to replicate a variance swap term structure for #BTC by using options data from @DeribitExchange. Image
2/ During my research I read about the first #BTC variance swap between @GSR_io and @BlockTower which occurred in the summer of 2019. Given the lack of public data for these swaps, the only real way to get a decent price estimate is to use a replicating portfolio of options.
3/ These variance swaps allow for traders to make outright bets on volatility^2. Instead of using options (ie: straddles), with these products there is no need to delta-hedge. The payoff is as follows:

(Realized Variance - Strike Variance) x Notional
4/ At inception, the fair value of the swap should be zero, therefore, we have to use some formulas to find the correct strike variance to make this happen. I'd suggest those interested in the math to review the paper for a detailed technical explanation.
5/ Despite the lack of a well established #BTC options market, I was happy to see a variance swap term structure which made intuitive sense with respect to the current upward sloping ATM IV curve. Image
6/ Excited for #BTC variance swaps to grow in popularity and for the savvy folks at @opyn_ , @PrimitiveFi, @HegicOptions and elsewhere to BUIDL the next generation of DeFi exotic derivatives!

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More from @samchepal

May 17, 2024
1. As one of the youngest and largest option liquidity providers in the market, the team at @Arbelosxyz is continually exploring efficient ways to trade volatility. A few days ago @joshua_j_lim shared a trade idea which profited from collapsing vols amidst choppy price action. This week, we'll evaluate various systematic volatility selling strategies in crypto. Full piece here: arbelos.xyz/quantitive-fra…
2. As a baseline, we can evaluate the P&L of selling weekly BTC delta-hedged straddles on @DeribitExchange. Overall the performance is not bad despite some steep drawdowns in 2020 / 2021. Image
3. In theory, it makes sense to sell vol when ATM IV trades at a rich premium to RV, quantified using the "VRP" ratio (ATM IV / RV). In our feature exploration, sorting the vanilla straddle P&L by this ratio shows a rapid cumulative P&L increase as the VRP crosses 1.00. This suggests that most of the strategy's P&L accrues when IV > RV.Image
Read 9 tweets
May 11, 2024
1. Thrilled to see that @Arbelosxyz is now public! I've had the privilege of collaborating with the team to conduct in-depth research in the crypto derivatives space, with one of our first pieces on analyzing yield strats on @pendle_fi. Dive into our findings here: arbelos.xyz/getting-to-kno…
2. DeFi interest rate markets face two primary challenges:

a) Absence of fixed maturity products
b) High volatility of interest rates

Both of these limitations make it difficult to justify allocating large sums of capital to DeFi interest rate markets. As a result, this is where Pendle as a protocol shines which allows considerable flexibility on how to trade yield.
3. Key components in Pendle's protocol include:
- PT: Principal Token
- YT: Yield Token
- PT + YT = the total value of the underlying asset.
Read 13 tweets
Mar 16, 2023
1. Recently came across this tweet which led me to think about 0DTE options strats in crypto markets.

Full writeup: samchepal.com/systematically…
2. Not investment advice - just for fun / educational purposes.
3. Over the past few months there's been a steady rise in 0DTE options trading in SPX. These are super short-dated and there’s a lot of gamma associated with these options. Nearly 40% of SPX option volume was 0DTE in Q2 2022 - this has raised concerns from JPM researchers. Image
Read 17 tweets
Jan 13, 2023
1. Over the past few day's we've noticed some massive trades on @DeribitExchange. Surprisingly some of these trades were executed against limit orders without using RFQs. This gave inspiration to build an order-book scanner which is now open-sourced: github.com/schepal/deribi…
2. The motivation for this whole project was due to some large whale deciding to trade 25k contracts of ETH-30JUN23-400-P on Jan 5/23. Digging into the details we can see this trader decided to sell these options against passive limit orders on Deribit.
3. It's interesting b/c this trader could have gotten much better execution by tapping an OTC desk or @tradeparadigm's RFQ platform. A possible reason is this trader wanted to be completely anon and not attract attention until after the trade was completed (h/t @VidiellaLaura)
Read 16 tweets
Apr 11, 2022
1. A few weeks ago we witnessed a duel between @stablekwon and @AlgodTrading in a public wager on LUNA's future price action. In this piece written with @tradeparadigm we analyze how this bet could be priced using options pricing theory + who got rugged on this trade…
2. Let’s briefly review the premise of the bet.

- @Algod believes LUNA < $88 1 year from now - if he's right he gets $1M
- @stablekwon believes LUNA > $88 1 year from now - if he's right he gets $1M
Read 26 tweets
Feb 4, 2022
1. Over the past few months, DeFi ecosystems have witnessed a surge in structured product platforms - notably option vaults. While the current yields on these vaults can be enticing, we take a closer look at the long-run performance of these strategies: research.ledgerprime.com/p/a-quantitati…
2. Let’s start with a brief overview of the DeFi options space - TVL in 2020 was virtually non-existent but blew up to nearly $1B at the start of 2022. This was primarily due to the surge of activity within the DeFi structured products space. Data Source: @DefiLlama
3. Most of these structured products revolve around covered call options. As a refresher, this strategy involves being long the underlying spot asset and selling a call. This effectively caps the upside price action in exchange for an option premium.
Read 21 tweets

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