<thread> My third testimony to the US Senate, June 2020: key points
China is building the equivalent of one battery megafactory a week, the United States one every four months.
In that time, we have witnessed a global battery arms race and watched the world’s number of supersized battery plants – known as battery megafactories or gigafactories – go from 17 to 142 [now 167]
Lithium ion batteries are a core platform technology for the 21st century.
They allow our energy to be stored on a widespread basis in electric vehicles and energy storage systems, and they spark the demand for the critical raw materials and chemicals.
A new global lithium ion economy is being created.
Yet, any ambitions for the United States to be a leader in this lithium ion economy continue to only creep forward and be outstripped by China and Europe.
This rise of the battery megafactories will require demand for raw materials to increase significantly.
By 2029, demand for nickel will double, cobalt to grow by 3 times, flake graphite and manganese by four times, and lithium by more than six times.
The tectonic plates of our industry have shifted.
However, be under no illusions that the United States needs to build this 21st century heavy industry from scratch.
FDR’s New Deal, for example, built core infrastructure that the United States still relies on today.
Yet instead of dams, you need to build battery megafactories in their multiples.
Instead of highways, bridges and tunnels, you need to build the supply chains to enable these megafactories to operate securely and consistently.
Those who invest in battery capacity and supply chains today will hold the sway of industrial power for generations to come.
Tesla’s Master Plan 3 believes it will take $1.4 Trillion dollars to invest in critical mineral mining, refining and cathode / anode making for the energy transition.
ie 240TWh of deployed batteries around the world.
$2Tr in gigafactories and battery recycling
All in all to reach net zero with the technologies we have today Tesla and Elon Musk have laid down a $3.5 Trillion dollar gauntlet for the energy transition
The numbers are almost bang on the low end what we have at @benchmarkmin - we estimate $3.5 to $5bn
We anticipate that mining will need the lions share of this investment
That high and volatile lithium prices are here to stay. High from a perspective if you were in the industry in 2016, low if you joined in the last two years.
That volatility is the name of the game now as lithium rushes to scale supply from a wide variety of sources all with a wide variety of costs to get out of the ground.
No longer do we look to the Atacama as the low cost base line for our narrative like back in 2016, but to… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
“It’s hard to say. These days people are looking at 150,000 RMB ($21,807 a tonne), that has a bigger chance to be achieved,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
On 2022 v 2023:
“Last year was booming … Lots of battery companies and OEMs were very aggressive about expansion so they gave big numbers for requirements for upstream resources like lithium, encouraging everyone to expand, especially lepidolite and DSO [Direct Shipping Ore]… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
On lepidolite in China:
“Below 100,000 RMB only a few and smaller volume [mines] can be justified. But we believe the big volume that everyone was expecting would probably be in trouble.”
This is at time when lithium prices are at an all time high & stable. There isn’t even a murmur of price declines as all new lithium carbonate and hydroxide supply is snapped up.
It doesn’t take a genius to make a call that lithium prices will eventually come down.
Lithium is one the longest price rallies in any “commodity” in recent memory.