Thread by @faisalislam

Still waiting for today’s new case data here... following yesterday’s 12,872 extra cases over several days following the “failure in the counting system” coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1312683244907790337

Being updated right now actually - website will be ready at 2138 - but in meantime number 22,961 has come up under “daily total” - which would be huge, though is presumably a few days correction. Reference to “15.841” additional cases from automated process transferring to PHE

That confirmed 22,961 new positive cases reported today across the UK... much of which is a rectified error... so in theory should fall straight back down again very soon... but it does this to the “by date reported” chart

So the 15841 PHE historic cases has been added to today and yesterday’s figures - total 22961+12872=35833. Take off the mistake, gets you to 19,992 over the weekend - so that seems to be 10k a day on average this weekend, even stripping out the mistake - which seems notably high.

By specimen date - basically at 10k over past 4 days now (but that data also subject to big change) -

cases doubled from 19th (4866) to 28th September (9799) - so 9ish days.

System in place, whether it was excel or not, didn’t handle the volumes ...

https://twitter.com/leokelion/status/1313091677037514754

Manchester now up to 496 cases per 100,000, with all the lost cases added back in...

https://twitter.com/danwainwright/status/1313128925472714753?s=21

Another 12594 positive cases reported today...

Based on specimen date that is a 9 day doubling time on three consecutive overlapping 3 day periods 19th-28th, 20th-29th, 21st-30th... with 22nd-Oct 1st not far off...

Cases were running at closer to 12,000 a day going into weekend

So that Vallance chart...

By 22 Sept, 7 days on, cases doubled to 6,399 from below.

And from 22 Sep to 30 Sep, 8 days after that, the number was 12,157 -almost doubling again.

As an italicised “If” - seems v reasonable, esp when measures brought in to prevent 7 day doubling...

Now lets all hope pattern now slowed & changed...but as I said up thread, the data shows at least 9 day doubling on three consecutive days, for which data most complete..so his illustrative chart would be out by less than a week.

So hardly a wild projection of unchecked scenario