Churn is a stone cold killer.

"Netflix, often estimated to be less than 10% annually, the company will face much less fundraising pressure. If it tracks closer to last year’s industry average of 35%, Quibi’s problems would grow significantly."
msn.com/en-us/money/ne…
Churn is a stone cold killer. news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
The higher the cost of acquiring a customer is, the deadlier customer churn can be. CAC and churn are reflexive. They are interdependent parts of a complex adaptive system. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
4/ You're learning what subscription services make it very hard to cancel (for providers the impact of churn can be nonlinear). But customers learn and become more reluctant to sign up, increasing the cost of acquiring a customer. All unit economics variables are interconnected.
5/ What subscription services make it easy to cancel so you are less reluctant to sign up again (lowering CAC)? Netflix?

What services make it an ordeal to cancel? Do they believe you are never going to sign up again anyway? Are they essentially in run-off mode? Short sighted?

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More from @trengriffin

4 Oct
Once a mobile operator has built out to serve high value mobile customers, there is often unused capacity. Regardless of the "G" it can sell the unused capacity for fixed home use. "All capacity you do not use at this current time is lost forever." fiercewireless.com/operators/veri…
The unit economics of fixed wireless to homes are better if there's: 1) no equipment subsidy; and, 2) no truck roll for an installation.

"Telecom in wireless is a high fixed-cost, low variable-cost business. Once the equipment [built], it’s pretty cheap to offer services.”
The US Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) auction, which may provide up to $16 billion in funding for rural broadband, is scheduled for late October. A FCC ruling may be issued next week clarifying which communications operators can participate in the auction and how.
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
"Over all, the researchers found, 71 percent of the people in the study did not seem to have transmitted the virus to anyone else; instead, just 5 percent of people accounted for 80 percent of the infections detected by contact tracing." nytimes.com/2020/09/30/hea…
"The most prevalent comorbid conditions were diabetes (45.0%), sustained hypertension (36.2%), coronary artery disease (12.3%), and renal disease (8.2%)." science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
"R0 breaks down completely in the presence of phenomena not captured in the random graph model, such as the effect of super-spreaders" guava.physics.uiuc.edu/~nigel/courses…
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
1/ This podcast with Modest Proposal features a useful framework for understanding Charlie Munger style value investing. Old school value investors look quantitatively at the rear view mirror. Munger style investors look qualitatively out the front window. investorfieldguide.com/modest-proposa…
2/ A forward looking qualitative Munger-style investor is looking for a margin of safety based on a competitive analysis of the specific business considering factors like competitive strategy. Circle of competence remains critical since a sound analysis requires that expertise.
3/ The number of times I have considered book value in assessing the value of a business is never. I find my margin of safety by looking for underpriced quality.

"Book value tells you what has been put in; intrinsic business value estimates what can be taken out." Warren Buffett
Read 7 tweets
26 Sep
Twitter is the Quibi of reading --

except that Twitter doesn't pay its writers anything and it actually owns the content -- so Twitter has a workable business model.
One thing Twitter does for its writers, even though it pays them nothing, is give them a chance to be treated like a criminal if they suggest they be assigned a blue check mark. Someone received one without a request this week since they were quoted six times in the press though.
Quibi should fund a comedy about a platform business that pays for content.

High gross margin from free content enables more spending on the platform and opportunity to adopt an advertising based model, which is easier to bootstrap than subscriptions, but a tough revenue model.
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
Someone I greatly admire sent me the galley proofs of their soon to be published book. I can't decide what is greater: the honor of being asked to read the manuscript or my happiness when I started reading it tonight. No, I can't tell you the topic or author. But it is fabulous.
I read the galleys of this excellent book end-to-end without stopping except for a dinner break. I'm thinking about ideas in the book this morning. More writing should be like this book.

The total number of books sold about investing or business is a small part of nonfiction.
This article title makes an important point about how early success compounds in book publishing and other businesses.

"There are a few winners and there are far, far fewer books around the break-even point, and there are more that lose." nytimes.com/2020/09/19/boo…
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
1/ Casey Newton's interview with Sarah Jeong puts the focus on the economics of the *writers*. Too often people talk and write about whether the publication has a business model. What are the economics for the people who do the writing? How do they thrive? onezero.medium.com/casey-newton-o…
2/ Casey Newton: "What we don’t know is if you’re a writer with a following, can you use that to build a sustainable career in journalism?" That includes working for the NYT but also building a business around a platform like Substack or like rolling your own (Stratechery).
3/ Casey: "If you can find 10,000 people to pay you $100 a year, you’re making $1M a year. I’m not going to get to 10,000 subscribers anytime soon, but if I can I’ll be in a position where I can create media jobs." More and more journalists will adopt Casey's approach over time.
Read 15 tweets

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