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Alexandre Afonso Profile picture
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5 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Daily covid cases in the Netherlands by age group. Data source: RIVM buff.ly/33s9b4j
Based on the same dataset (111'000 obs): probability of hospitalisation of confirmed Covid cases in the Netherlands, by age group and gender. 80+ less likely to go to hospital, either because in care home, or treatment too invasive?
And here the case fatality rate by age group and gender.
Mean age of confirmed covid cases in the Netherlands (imputed from age categories)

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More from @alexandreafonso

Alexandre Afonso Profile picture
5 Oct
A thread on the damages of excel:
1. Rogoff and Reinhart had found that high public debt hampers growth, a finding used to justify austerity cuts. They hadn't selected the entire row to average growth rates. In fact, growth is *higher* at 90% public debt
theconversation.com/the-reinhart-r… ImageImage
Because of a mistake in a spreadsheet, JP Morgan Chase wrongly reported 6 *billion* in losses in 2013, possibly leading to a 600 mio fine
google.com/amp/s/qz.com/1… Image
MI5 bugged 134 telephone numbers that were irrelevant to any investigation because a spreadsheet wrongly formatted the last 3 numbers
theguardian.com/government-com… Image
Read 5 tweets
Alexandre Afonso Profile picture
2 Oct
Few unscientific observations about the use of face masks in NL after the government issued a "strong recommendation" to wear them:
- Shops, cafés and facilities that are part of large chains either recommend them explicitly or require them
- Small or independent shops don't
Aside: where do I buy a face mask that says "IT'S USELESS IF YOU DON'T WEAR IT OVER YOUR NOSE"
Other unscientific observations: all these arguments about culture/aversion to face masks etc. don't really work. Everybody relies on one actor (the government) to establish rules and guidance. If the the rules change, people change their behaviour.
Read 4 tweets
Alexandre Afonso Profile picture
30 Sep
"Blue-sky" thinking at the UK home office is something else Image
Another idea would be giant fans on the coastline blowing migrant boats away to the French coast. Image
Migrant detention centre project, Home Office, n.d. Image
Read 4 tweets
Alexandre Afonso Profile picture
29 Sep
I may be strange, but I actually think that the online iteration of my course this year is actually better than the in-person version of last year (thread) hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2020-0… Image
What was a weekly 2-hour lecture/seminar is now a 1h lecture prerecorded lecture followed by 2-hour interactive online sessions with discussion/quizzes/votes in smaller groups. Assignments have also been revamped. There's also outdoor lecture action (here at the Peace Palace) Image
I also have never spent so much time on a course, recording and editing the lectures, devising the assignments, thinking of activities for the seminars, fixing the technical issues. Students have to work more, and hopefully also learn more. Image
Read 5 tweets
Alexandre Afonso Profile picture
21 Sep
"The special chair of Professor Noldus is funded by Noldus Information technology, a company he founded and is the CEO of". Are there other countries where you can basically create an endowed chair for yourself?
ru.nl/nieuws-agenda/… Image
"Alexandre Afonso is the Alexandre Afonso Professor of Afonsology. His chair is made possible by a generous donation of the Afonso Corporation".
And well, I came across this because Noldus technology happens to sell facial recognition technology to China.
dutchnews.nl/news/2020/09/d… Image
Read 4 tweets
Alexandre Afonso Profile picture
19 Sep
Perhaps a lot of the problems of American democracy have to do with what a Dutch historian (Jan Romeijn) called the "law of head start disadvantage ("wet van de remmende voorsprong") in 1937.
The "law" states that having a head start in one area - being the first to adopt something - may constitute a handicap in the long term because it lowers incentives to modernise. You get stuck with the first, suboptimal iteration of a technology or institution.
The US is the oldest democracy in the world, and for this reason its institutions (the constitution, electoral college, supreme court; etc.) are older than elsewhere and devised for a time more different than now. ourworldindata.org/democracy Image
Read 4 tweets

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