In the last four decades, four Queensland elections have produced hung parliaments. Let me run through them. First, after the coalition split in 1983, the Nationals fell just short of a majority at the election. The lured two Liberals to join the Nationals. .../2 #qldvotes
1995 - Labor won 45 seats, Coalition 43, 1 Independent. The Labor 2PP% was 46.7%. After Labor lost the Mundingburra re-election in Feb 1996, the numbers were 44-44 and Independent Liz Cunningham named the 2PP% as why she backed Borbidge to replace Goss as Premier. .../3
1998 - the One Nation surge. Labor won 44 seats, one short of a majority. Independent Peter Wellington agreed to put Labor in office. The only alternative government was a National-Liberal-One Nation-Independent coalition. .../4
2015 - Labor won 44 seats, one short. Peter Wellington became Speaker, and with Katter's Australian Party holding 2 seats, the LNP could not bring down the government on its own, though LNP and KAP did defeat government from time time on specific votes, not no confidence votes.
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The LNP has said it will list Labor last on its how-to-vote material at the 2020 Queensland election. That is they are recommending voters complete their ballot papers giving preferences to every party ahead of Labor. Does this matter? .../2
At the 2017 Qld election, only 65 districts finished as 2-party Labor v LNP contests. One Nation finished in the final preferences in 21 seats, 8 versus LNP, 13 versus Labor, winning Mirani. There were 3 LNP-KAP contests, 1 LNP-GRN, 1 LNP-IND, 1 ALP-GRN and 1 ALP-KAP. ../3
LNP preferences were distributed in 10 seats where the party recommended preferences to One Nation, flowing 70% to ONP, 30% Labor. There were two seats where LNP recommended preferences to Labor ahead of One Nation, Logan and Thuringowa, preferences splitting 50:50 .../4