Thread by @AntonyGreenABC

The LNP has said it will list Labor last on its how-to-vote material at the 2020 Queensland election. That is they are recommending voters complete their ballot papers giving preferences to every party ahead of Labor. Does this matter? .../2

At the 2017 Qld election, only 65 districts finished as 2-party Labor v LNP contests. One Nation finished in the final preferences in 21 seats, 8 versus LNP, 13 versus Labor, winning Mirani. There were 3 LNP-KAP contests, 1 LNP-GRN, 1 LNP-IND, 1 ALP-GRN and 1 ALP-KAP. ../3

LNP preferences were distributed in 10 seats where the party recommended preferences to One Nation, flowing 70% to ONP, 30% Labor. There were two seats where LNP recommended preferences to Labor ahead of One Nation, Logan and Thuringowa, preferences splitting 50:50 .../4

And in South Brisbane, the LNP recommended preferences to Labor over the Greens and they flowed 62% to Labor, 38% to Greens. Had LNP preferences flowed just 52% to the Greens, Labor's Jackie Trad would have been defeated. .../5

In Thuringowa, had LNP preferences flowed at the average rate of preferences to One Nation, then One Nation would have narrowly won the seat. One Nation won Mirani thanks to getting 78.5% of LNP preferences. ... /6

Two other Labor seats were made marginal by LNP preferences flowing to One Nation, Keppel where the flow to One Nation was 77.8%, and Maryborough where the flow was 79.2% .../7

So what does this mean for 2020? It is a huge help to the Greens in South Brisbane in trying to defeat Jackie Trad, and if the LNP slip to third place in McConnel, in helping the Greens beat Grace Grace. .../8

Elsewhere in the state, it will help One Nation if they can improve on the 20% of the vote per seat the party polled in 2017. But it may help Katter's Australian Party more as they are likely to get both ALP and LNP preferences before One nation. ... /9

The message to put Labor last is also designed to appeal to voters giving a first preference for other parties. The more other party voters do that, the better for the LNP. Labor's slogan to "Put the LNP last" played a huge role in defeating Campbell Newman in 2012. ../10

And a final note. This isn't the LNP sending or directing preferences. Only voters direct preferences by the numbers they write on their ballot paper. To get strong flows, the LNP have to lodge the message "put Labor last" in people's heads, and hand out lots of how-to-votes.

To correct this particular tweet, Campbell Newman was of course defeated in 2015.