Re Kate Bingham's interview with @FT, where she says that vaccinating the whole population is "not going to happen" and would be "misguided", she is deferring the holy grail of herd immunity for months beyond next spring, and saying we will be living with the virus for years...
Because as chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, she is saying that only the old, vulnerable and those working in healthcare settings will be vaccinated. In other words the vaccine would be protection for those most likely to become acutely ill or whose services are most needed...
But all the evidence shows that young people are the principle spreaders of the virus, which would still be in the community. And we would still need to maintain social distancing, since we could never be confident that a vaccine would deliver...
total protection to the frail and elderly. Obviously these decisions feel a bit premature, pending approval of a vaccine or vaccines, and we understand what kind of protection it provides. But in other countries there is an active debate about the benefits of whole country...
vaccination. And vaccine specialists tell me that - paradoxically - the vaccine is more likely to be effective on young spreaders than on the old. So it is slightly odd perhaps that Kate Bingham wishes to close down that debate here.
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Obviously this shows there was a gradual rise in Covid-19 infections in recent days rather than the levelling off we had been seeing. But here is the mystery. Test and Trace tell me there has NOT been a significant increase in the gap between individuals having...
a test and receiving their results. But there has been a huge leap in the lag between the test and it showing on the Gov.UK dashboard. And no one can explain why. This is troubling
Broadly we now know that COVID-19 prevalence in the community was greater than the daily data was showing and the rate of growth was not flattening as seemed to be the case. But the biggest worry is that this is not a one-off correction, and there will be more upward...
The announcement that @vonderleyen and @BorisJohnson will be speaking tomorrow afternoon "to take stock of negotiations" carries a weighty implication - namely that the EU wants to test whether the prime minister actually wants a free trade agreement and is prepared to...
negotiate in what EU leaders regard as "good faith". There is much suspicion, fuelled by the PM's decision to legislate to break the Withdrawal Agreement he signed, that the UK is talking only so as to find a way of blaming the EU for the absence of a deal, rather than...
because it actually wants a deal. As the former UK ambassador to the EU Ivan Rogers has said, the big sticking point still remains the UK's refusal to give legally binding commitments not to "unfairly" subsidise UK businesses, so-called state aid rules. But for the avoidance,...
If @MattHancock gives a commitment from the Despatch Box to do roughly what Brady and the Tory rebels want - viz have advance votes in Commons on national measures to suppress #COVID19 except in acute emergency (and in those circumstances there would be a retrospective vote)...
- then the rebellion would largely melt away. “Yes we would accept that” said one influential Tory MP. “We can’t amend the Coronavirus Act, our amendment only has moral force, so yes a formal ministerial commitment would be enough” said another. So...
is that what Hancock and the government are planning to do on Wednesday? Such is what I would expect, since when I asked a senior government source whether the rebellion was causing anxiety he said he had absolutely no problem with MPs scrutinising and voting on...
The attached trend, spotted by a friend, is of interest. It uses @ONS daily #COVIDー19 infection data to plot how rapidly the infection is spreading on a rolling seven-day basis, till 18/9. And what it shows is that the recent peak in rate of viral spread was about three weeks...
ago. The rate of viral spread has definitely increased again in past week but probably not back to the seven-say doubling rate of the end of summer. Which does not mean there are grounds complacency. But is a glimmer of better news
For added clarity, this shows the incidence rate per 10,000 people as a ratio of the incidence rate seven days previously. It does not show absolute rates of infection in the community but the rate of increase.
I made a slightly naive error in my calculation. For which I am embarrassed. Which is that I neglected the effect of the Chancellor’s stipulation that employers must subsidise one third of the unworked hours. Which means it is...
mathematically impossible for the financial savings of retaining part time workers to be equal to savings from sacking full time workers - unless part-time workers are more productive than full-time ones (which they might be). Even so it is rational for many...
employers to use the scheme, because a) for many employers who expect business conditions to improve one day it is mad to sack one group of workers and then expensively retrain a new bunch in a few months and b) some employers feel a sense of social responsibility towards...
Sunak's Job Support Scheme may represent the most ambitious programme to socialise or nationalise work in British history - because at a time when so many companies face bleak demand for their goods and services, it subsidises employers to put their staff on short hours, or...
turn them into part-time workers, as an alternative to sacking them. The Treasury is not publishing estimates of how many employees will be on the scheme over the six months of its existence. But its designers "guess" that there may up to 4m on it - which would cost...
the Exchequer around £1.2bn a month or £7.2bn in total. On the basis of my research for a film about the looming unemployment crisis - which airs this evening at 7.30 as part of the "Tonight" series - I suspect this may be an under-estimate; I have lost count of the number of...