Short thread on the politics of economic policymaking.

How does economics analyze the impact of politics on policymaking?

The most common framework used for this in economic analysis, is the median voter theorem.

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This framework suggests that a majority rule voting system will select the outcome most preferred by the median voter.

This would imply that an average voter (represented by the median) has the power to determine policy choices.

2/5
An alternative framework that has been influenced by political science is elite theory.

This approach suggests that powerful groups like business or political elites determine policy choices.

The average voter doesn't really have a significant role or influence.

3/5
So, which of these approaches is closer to reality?

As this paper below shows, it is an empirically testable question.

For the American political economy, they find that elites have a more significant role in policymaking, not average citizens.

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cup.org/3it8oEB
In popular discussions, it is quite common to find that differences in frameworks (citizen-based versus elite-based) are sometimes treated as ideological differences.

But ideological differences are sometimes just laziness, differences that can be resolved empirically.

5/5

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More from @Sabya_K

5 Oct
The disruptions caused by Covid-19 and the lockdowns may make the work of macro policy more complicated than usual, simply by worsening the short-run tradeoff between growth and inflation.

Let me explain.

1/6
A major factor behind the growth-inflation tradeoff is that in any economy close to full capacity, there is excess capacity in some sectors, while others face capacity constraints.

2/6
Increasing aggregate demand in such a situation lead to more growth in the excess-capacity sectors but also more inflation in the sectors facing constraints.

This is the tradeoff.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
10 Sep
A few clarifications.

Some of you (tweets below) feel IT framework/interest rates have nothing to do with low potential growth.

Please note these two points (tweets below).

1/4
1. IT framework is not independent of FRBM framework. And during FRBM period, capital expenditure ratio has fallen by almost 50%!

Surely, such a drastic cut in capital expenditure has some impact on potential growth. Otherwise why so much concern over infrastructure.

2/4
2. THE biggest reason for the fall in potential growth has been the large fall in private investment.

This happened during a period of high real interest rates.

Again, surely interest rates have some effect on investment rates.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
5 Aug
1/10 Thread.

This piece by @CafeEconomics deals with a very important aspect of economic growth in countries like India.

While we fuss so much about the growth numbers here, what really drives high and sustained growth is the quality of our growth.

livemint.com/opinion/column…
2/10

@CafeEconomics uses two measures of the quality of growth.

The first is the extent of structural transformation (move from traditional to non-traditional sectors).

The second is economic complexity (producing goods that many other countries cannot).
3/10

He shows that India has had mixed results in terms of the quality of our growth process.

While we have done quite well given our initial conditions at the eve of our independence, we lag behind a number of other developing countries.
Read 10 tweets
28 Jul
Very useful to have views and counter-views on these issues. So thanks to Viral Acharya and @dugalira for the interview and @teasri for the counter.

Would like to add a few points from a political economy perspective:
1. Agree with Viral that the banking sector has always been misused in India for political economy reasons. But assuming that the legislation of rules will prevent this is not consistent with developing country experiences.
It is well established in the institutions literature that countries simply pretend to implement rules but work around them when they are politically difficult to implement. Lant Pritchett calls this *isomorphic mimicry*.
Just look at how our budget deficits are being managed.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jul
Thread.

There's concern among many economists that Import Substitution is again becoming popular among developing countries as well as developed countries like the US.

IMO however, this conflation of the US situation with those in developing countries, misleads the debate. 1/9
It is true that in many developing economies in the past, IS and purely inward looking policies have led to disustrous growth consequences.

This is mainly becoz the political economy in these countries allowed IS to provide a carrot to the pvt. sector, but not hold a stick. 2/9
All east Asian miracle economies, including China, however, implemented this carrot and stick policy successfully.

It allowed these economies to transform themselves technologically, from labour intensive to skill and tech-intensive economies. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
28 Jun
Thread: Does Covid-19 crisis need Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) approach?

It has now become clear that the Indian govt. will run a large fiscal deficit in 20-21.

For funding this, some amount of Deficit Monetization looks inevitable. 1/12
Interestingly, the possibility of Deficit Monetization has given rise to discussions around MMT.

This is an unconventional approach in economics that is much more comfortable with the printing of money for govt. expenditures, than mainstream economics. 2/12
There are however, some important differences between economic conditions/objectives driving MMT, and those characterizing the economic crisis resulting from the epidemic.

These lead to important difference in policies as well. Here are some of them in the next few tweets. 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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