Lot of queries and tagging me on Manu's blog. Hence this thread.
Every company and it's management has both strength and weaknesses. I see more strengths than weakness with ITC.
Management can't be labelled as laid back. It has acted with extreme dynamism during this pandemic.
Broadly concur with views on hotels. Hotels have been a great experience for customers & not shareholders.
Infotech is more of captive business and of insignificant size. So no point in discussing that.
In all other verticals, which are primary for ITC, they're doing well.
Double digit EBITDA margin in FMCG should happen in next 2 years. Building a FMCG business from the scratch and aiming to reach Rs.1 lakh crore turnover by 2030 is no joke. Management has proved that it is capable of walking the talk.
Savlon and B Natural are good acquisitions. They are among the leaders now in their respective categories. Can't compare Orkla's 68% acquisition in Eastern with ITC's 100% acquisition in Sunrise. Full control comes only at a premium.
Again it's no joke to be the leader selling 4 out of 5 cigarettes in India. Keeping low profile while talking about cigarettes should not be construed as laid back. ITC is literally a monopoly in Indian cigarettes. They're gaining market share too.
Management has implicitly accepted their capital mis-allocation in hotels and that's why has moved to asset right model. No point in blaming again and again for the capital already consumed and standing now as hotels.
No FMCG has 37,000 crores of cash in books or cash flow of Rs.15,000 crores every year. I believe cigarettes may be demerged only after FMCG too becomes a cash machine. So if at all it happens, not before 3 to 5 years.
Around Rs.25,000 crores of capex has happened for FMCG in the last decade. Major portion of capex to achieve target of Rs.1 lakh crore in FMCG is done & dusted. So surplus cash flows would get converted to hefty dividends. They've Rs.37,000 crores cash chest for any acquisition.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Saw a troll putting screenshot of commission details from AMFI. I don't use my Twitter following to solicit new clients. Many of you write to me to become our clients, only to get disappointed. Stopped adding new clients 3 years ago. Servicing old clients on their insistence.
Many of our clients are following me in Twitter. There is nothing for me to hide. I believe in integrity and transparency. And all my clients get commission disclosure statement once in 6 months. This is a SEBI mandate to AMFI.
With the kind of HNIs approaching us for service, can make use of the opportunity and earn huge money. As I said, other than old clients who have been with us for long, not entertaining anyone new.
Those who’ve been tracking my portfolio and investing method, please read the below thread carefully.
I’ve been following focused investing, owning not less than 10 and more than 15 stocks. My personal preference has been 11. I already own 10; with NSE listing would become 11.
It’s a decade since I’ve been following focused investing and wanting to try concentrated investing for a while. For Buffett and Munger, concentration means 6 and 3 businesses respectively. My personal preference is 9.
I’ve been pondering over this for last few months and wanted to pull the trigger today. This means I can own only 8 out of current 10 stocks as I’m keen to add NSE when it gets listed. All the 10 businesses I own are gems and it was emotionally difficult to eliminate two.
Financial year just got over and it’s time for performance review. I started moving towards current investment strategy from 2011. However only from 2016, I started meticulously recording every single transaction to calculate accurate returns.
Our family stock portfolio: Piramal Enterprises, Thomas Cook, HDFC Bank, Pidilite, United Spirits, ITC, Crisil, Nestle, P&G Hygiene, HDFC Life & Johnson Controls Hitachi.
Neither sold any existing one nor bought any new stock during the year. Have been simply adding the monthly surplus to the same family stock portfolio.
For expensive valuations, people always quote Nifty 50 of US in 1972. Some companies died. Some did mediocre. Just three companies alone (Wal-Mart, Philip Morris and Anheuser-Busch) out of fifty, not considering other survivors, delivered far higher future returns than S&P 500.
Out of Nifty 50, we also do not take into account how much stocks like Walt Disney, Procter and Gamble, PepsiCo delivered in subsequent decades despite being bought at high valuations.
Assume you invested $50 equally into US Nifty Fifty in 1972. The $3 representing Wal-Mart, Philip Morris& Anheuser-Busch alone gave higher returns than $50 invested in S&P 500. Remember we're completely ignoring other 47, out of which sizeable stocks became great wealth creators.