NOAA hurricane hunters just took off from Tampa, FL en route for Tropical Storm Delta.

It'll be our first direct look at the storm's intensity and structure, and should help improve the model forecasts this evening for a storm that now looks almost certain to hit the Gulf Coast.
Looks like Delta is continuing to quickly strengthen. These data support the NHC's current intensity of 60mph winds, or perhaps a hair more. At this rate, Delta could be a hurricane later tonight.

First NOAA Hurricane Hunter dropsonde in the center of TS Delta finds a central pressure of 984mb. This is a rapidly strengthening system.
After the hurricane hunter data, the NHC has significantly boosted its forecast for TS Delta.

Delta is now expected to become a major hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours.

Landfall still expected in Louisiana on Friday. latest forecast from the NH...
....and Delta is now a hurricane. BULLETIN Hurricane Delta In...

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More from @EricHolthaus

7 Oct
Hi friends, some personal news:

Today I’m launching a new Substack called *The Phoenix*, because the world is on fire and we’ve got to build a new one from the ashes.

This is a publication for climate revolutionaries.

I'm so ready. Subscribe here:
thephoenix.substack.com/p/welcome-to-t… Circular painted logo of a ...
For years, I've repeated these words: We are in a climate emergency.

Now, I’m ready to take the next step.

Real change comes by demanding justice and a world that works for everyone.

Because we need to see what we’re fighting for, not just what we’re fighting against.
My main goal with The Phoenix is to change the narrative of the climate movement.

We've got to shift climate storytelling away from inevitable apocalypse towards the possibility of a better world; towards catastrophic success not catastrophic failure.

I can't do this alone.
Read 10 tweets
6 Oct
wow.

In a nutshell, Hurricane Delta is well on its way to becoming one of the fastest-intensifying hurricanes in history if these numbers hold.

Delta has already strengthened from tropical depression to hurricane in 18 hours. This would take it to Cat 3 or 4 by tomorrow.
Delta has just strengthened by 40kt in 24 hours, something that only about 1/40 hurricanes do. The forecast is for it to do nearly the same thing again over the next 24 hours. That's unreal.
Earlier *this year*, Hurricane Laura became the fastest-intensifying Gulf of Mexico hurricane in history, strengthening by 55kt in 24 hours. Delta could strengthen 70kt in about 36 hours on this pace.
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
The ice shelves of the Pine Island glacier and Thwaites glacier have begun to fracture, according to a new study published today.

These are, quite simply, the most important chunks of ice in the world, and they will likely determine (in part) the fate of our civilization.
Back in 2017, I described this scenario as the beginning stages of an "ice apocalypse":

grist.org/article/antarc…
As always, @chriscmooney has a masterful description of exactly what today's study means.

In short, the natural brakes on the glaciers are shearing off. Their flow towards the sea is accelerating.

washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep
As terrifying as Sally's rapidly-intensifying winds are, its biggest threat is likely going to be incredibly heavy rainfall.

Latest forecasts are for a 3-4 day slow loop over southern Mississippi & Alabama, and up to 27 inches of rainfall.

Be prepared for catastrophic flooding. a graphic showing predicted rainfall from hurricane Sally, s
Scenarios that come to mind:

Danny (1997) - Alabama
Georges (1998) - Mississippi
Allison (2001) - Texas
Florence (2018) - Carolinas

These storms brought 25-35 inches of rain over a span of four days, about what Sally is expected to do.
There's increasing scientific consensus that slow-moving, rapidly-intensifying, extremely heavy rain producing hurricanes on the Gulf Coast -- like Sally -- are going to be a hallmark of climate change.

phys.org/news/2020-04-h…
Read 6 tweets
26 Aug
NHC not holding back in their latest update on Hurricane Laura:

"Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage" Key Messages:  1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and de
Just, incredible incredible stuff. Hurricane Laura will alter history for this part of the Gulf Coast.
NHC just boosted the storm surge forecast to historic levels in Louisiana.

20ft of surge would put Hurricane Laura into rare territory in the 140-year recorded history of hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, on par with Ike (2008) and Galveston (1900).

This is a dire emergency. A map of forecasted storm surge from Hurricane Laura, showin
Read 5 tweets
6 Jul
A review by climate scientists of the major claims of @shellenbergermd's new book Apocalypse Never (which will likely debut on the New York Times bestseller list) found that it has "misleading and overly simplistic argumentation about climate change".

climatefeedback.org/evaluation/art…
"The reviewers who analyzed this article rated its overall credibility to be low. In their comments, the scientists evaluate many of these claims and describe how they are inaccurate or mislead readers by contradicting available evidence or using scientific data out of context."
In a direct statement to me, Michael Shellenberger's publisher said that the book is specifically marketed to climate deniers.

Shellenberger has been appearing almost exclusively on right-wing TV, radio, print, and podcasts to promote the book.

Read 6 tweets

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