NOAA hurricane hunters just took off from Tampa, FL en route for Tropical Storm Delta.
It'll be our first direct look at the storm's intensity and structure, and should help improve the model forecasts this evening for a storm that now looks almost certain to hit the Gulf Coast.
Looks like Delta is continuing to quickly strengthen. These data support the NHC's current intensity of 60mph winds, or perhaps a hair more. At this rate, Delta could be a hurricane later tonight.
For years, I've repeated these words: We are in a climate emergency.
Now, I’m ready to take the next step.
Real change comes by demanding justice and a world that works for everyone.
Because we need to see what we’re fighting for, not just what we’re fighting against.
My main goal with The Phoenix is to change the narrative of the climate movement.
We've got to shift climate storytelling away from inevitable apocalypse towards the possibility of a better world; towards catastrophic success not catastrophic failure.
Delta has just strengthened by 40kt in 24 hours, something that only about 1/40 hurricanes do. The forecast is for it to do nearly the same thing again over the next 24 hours. That's unreal.
Earlier *this year*, Hurricane Laura became the fastest-intensifying Gulf of Mexico hurricane in history, strengthening by 55kt in 24 hours. Delta could strengthen 70kt in about 36 hours on this pace.
As terrifying as Sally's rapidly-intensifying winds are, its biggest threat is likely going to be incredibly heavy rainfall.
Latest forecasts are for a 3-4 day slow loop over southern Mississippi & Alabama, and up to 27 inches of rainfall.
Be prepared for catastrophic flooding.
Scenarios that come to mind:
Danny (1997) - Alabama
Georges (1998) - Mississippi
Allison (2001) - Texas
Florence (2018) - Carolinas
These storms brought 25-35 inches of rain over a span of four days, about what Sally is expected to do.
There's increasing scientific consensus that slow-moving, rapidly-intensifying, extremely heavy rain producing hurricanes on the Gulf Coast -- like Sally -- are going to be a hallmark of climate change.
NHC not holding back in their latest update on Hurricane Laura:
"Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage"
Just, incredible incredible stuff. Hurricane Laura will alter history for this part of the Gulf Coast.
NHC just boosted the storm surge forecast to historic levels in Louisiana.
20ft of surge would put Hurricane Laura into rare territory in the 140-year recorded history of hurricanes on the Gulf Coast, on par with Ike (2008) and Galveston (1900).
A review by climate scientists of the major claims of @shellenbergermd's new book Apocalypse Never (which will likely debut on the New York Times bestseller list) found that it has "misleading and overly simplistic argumentation about climate change".
"The reviewers who analyzed this article rated its overall credibility to be low. In their comments, the scientists evaluate many of these claims and describe how they are inaccurate or mislead readers by contradicting available evidence or using scientific data out of context."
In a direct statement to me, Michael Shellenberger's publisher said that the book is specifically marketed to climate deniers.
Shellenberger has been appearing almost exclusively on right-wing TV, radio, print, and podcasts to promote the book.