Health Nerd Profile picture
5 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
I have great respect for people willing to take on the difficult question of balancing direct COVID-19 harms against the damage that control measures can do

I have no respect at all for people who minimize the harms of COVID-19 in order to make this argument
Yes, there are harms to disease-prevention measures. We should certainly be weighing these against the potential harms that unmitigated epidemics do and think carefully about our choices
But pretending that we can largely ignore COVID-19 without cost is just a disingenuous and nonsensical position that flies in the face of all evidence gathered to date
Also, if you are ignorant enough to ignore the secondary BENEFITS to COVID-19 restrictions (e.g. influenza deaths) in your assessment, then I would say your argument is entirely political and has no basis in science
This is not to say that secondary benefits are likely to be enormous, but the point is any meaningful cost-benefit is not nearly as simple as preventing COVID-19 on one hand and getting kids back to school on the other

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More from @GidMK

7 Oct
Men* with deep voices more likely** to be unfaithful***, research**** claims

*Chinese university students
**p=0.018
***to score higher on a self-report tool rating attitudes towards infidelity (r² = 0.22)
****single correlational study, n=234

FIXED IT ImageImage
Honestly, this is a hilarious example of somewhat meaningless research being touted far and wide in the media
Read 11 tweets
5 Oct
You have to wonder at a statement that contains factual inaccuracies in the opening paragraphs

It is very much not certain that all populations will reach herd immunity 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️
It doesn't really improve from there. These exact measures - or virtually identical ones - have been attempted in pretty much every country across the world for aged care

Unfortunately, it is REALLY HARD to keep COVID-19 out
This represents a very basic misunderstanding of COVID-19 risk - THERE IS NO EASY DELINEATION OF LOW/HIGH RISK
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct
Fun fact: Trump's doctor being an osteopath in any country but the U.S. would be super weird quackery but because osteopathy is weirdly integrated into medicine in the states it's pretty much normal there
Even more interesting is the history of osteopathy in the US, which started as pure quackery and then slowly drifted towards legitimacy over 150 years
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
The more I hear about the White House COVID-19 precautions, the more it sounds like prevention theatre that was really only designed to make people think that they were safe
I mean, rapid testing is a TOTAL WASTE OF TIME without quarantine and/or isolation as well as rigorous contact tracing. The moment that one person tests positive, everyone has to respond
Rapid testing doesn't catch every case, so you still have to take basic precautions because otherwise you risk an outbreak
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
Apropos of nothing, according to our systematic review and meta-analysis of the age-stratified IFR of COVID-19, a 74-year-old person who catches the disease has a 1 in 25 risk of death Image
The preprinted paper can be found here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
I also feel it's worth clarifying - I do not wish a COVID-19 infection on anyone. It is a horrible disease
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
Leaving aside any commentary on this preprint, I thought it worthwhile running the numbers that a 20% reduction in relative risk would confer if HCQ really does prevent this many infections
So, firstly, how many people get COVID-19 in a given area over a period of time - let's say a year

Very crudely, if we look at different places in the world with quite large outbreaks, it's around 15-20% at a population level in most places
Using the population IFR estimated from our meta-analysis, this gives an overall death rate in a population of (say) 10,000 people of:

0.15*0.0068*10,000 = 10 deaths
Read 11 tweets

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