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6 Oct, 8 tweets, 2 min read
UK to target 40GW of offshore wind

A few points to note

1/ offshore wind is set to be "negative subsidy" within just a few years

carbonbrief.org/guest-post-the…
2/ Offshore wind is much cheaper than the government expected only a few years ago

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
3/ Reaching 40GW means tripling the rate of growth over the past decade

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
4/ Johnson promised 40GW in the Tory manifesto last year

carbonbrief.org/election-2019-…
5/ perhaps the bigger news today then is doubling capacity up for grabs in next CfD auction in 2021 (presumably to 12GW but including onshore wind and solar), as well as target for floating wind 1GW by 2030

Background

carbonbrief.org/qa-how-viable-…
6/ 40GW of offshore wind could generate half of the UK's current electricity demand but govt spin has gone with "every home". Domestic demand is only a third of the UK total.
Numbers here:
and more here

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
7 Oct
I see the £50bn price tag of building another 30GW of offshore wind is making headlines, so some context

Most impt is that the invst will be private & we'll pay via bills, which will be lower than for alternative sources

carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
Also worth noting that estimated investment of £50bn to build 30GW of offshore wind capacity is about 2x the amount invested for the first 10GW

So 2x invst yielding 3x capacity, which will yield perhaps 50% more electricity per GW as larger turbines etc.

auroraer.com/insight/reachi…
Finally, investment over a decade is bound to sound big. But we already collectively spend colossal sums on energy in the UK.

50bn/10yrs = 5bn/yr
~67bn/yr = consumer energy spend
~18bn/yr = consumer spend on electricity

gov.uk/government/col…
Read 5 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
5 Oct
Eye-popping new data just out for UK car sales in Sep20

⚡️ new record for BEVs, up 3x in a yr & 7x since 2016
🔌 >10% of cars now come with a plug
⛽️ just 2/3 are conventional cars (cf 98% in 2015)
🚗 overall sales down ~40% since 2017 peak

THREAD with my analysis of @SMMT data Image
More than 10% of UK new car sales now come with a plug ie pure EVs or plug-in hybrids

With the rise of hybrids, now at a record 21% of sales, that means only ~2/3 of new cars sold in the UK today are conventional petrol or diesel, down from around 98% just five years ago (!) Image
Remarkably, diesels now make up just 14% of UK new car sales, down from around 50% in 2015 Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
17 Sep
THREAD: What's going on with UK new nuclear plans?

This week has seen one project finally cancelled – plus heavy briefing from No 10 on new support for nuclear.

Let's recap where things stand today and look at what might happen next…

1/
TL;DR

UK govt still vv keen on new nuclear but options dwindling due to Wylfa cancellation & aversion to Chinese $$ in Sizewell

Briefing suggests No 10 looking for ways to get Sizewell over line, but I doubt final decision imminent

Energy white paper likely to have more…

2/
So…some background

Nuclear supplies a little less than 20% of UK electricity generation, which it has been doing for decades

But output has slipped a bit in recent years due to retirements and lengthy closures for maintenance.

3/
carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-lo…
Read 27 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
27 Aug
Everyone knows renewables have made staggering cost reductions in recent yrs

Now, the UK government has finally admitted it, slashing its cost estimates for wind & solar by 30-50%

All the details of its new "levelised cost" figures in my new piece:

1/
carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
It's not the 1st time UK govt has dramatically revised its estimates of wind & solar costs, having cut <30% off in 2016

This time it also made big reductions to its estimates for CCS…just in time for CCS to feature in the upcoming white paper 🤔

2/
carbonbrief.org/wind-and-solar…
Also 'interesting' to note that BEIS had updated its cost estimates in 2018 & 2019, but never published the results despite many many questions in parliament…

3/
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
24 Jul
EU govts agreed a covid recovery deal this week inc plans "with a view to" starting a carbon border tax from 2023.

Details are thin & nothing yet final, but European Commission is consulting on the idea.

What does it say & why am I sceptical?

THREAD

ec.europa.eu/info/law/bette…
Just for background, here is my thread on the EU deal

Also notable is that the draft US Democratic climate platform mentions carbon border adjustments.

An idea whose time has come?

Read 15 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
22 Jul
What the EU recovery plan means for climate
…& what it doesn't

THREAD

💶€750b recovery plan + €1.1t budget
💶30% earmarked for climate (no detail)
👩‍🏭"Just transition fund" cut (+weaker conditions)
🎯New 2030 goal by year end

🚢Carbon border tax from 2023?
📈EUETS to expand?
Link is to the 68pp deal, agreed among 27 EU member state govts at "European Council", and due to be signed off by European Parliament on Thursday (so some details could change, but prob not headlines - HT @LindaCulture )

consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/21…
To start with, the overall recovery + budget package is pretty big, at €1.8tn, and includes novelty of €390bn in recovery grants

That's a stimulus of roughly 3% of EU GDP, acc @ThPellerin in this excellent thread on the "good & bad" bits of the deal:

Read 17 tweets

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