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David Henig Profile picture
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6 Oct, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Might have to pin this and retweet every day:

Yes, the Prime Minister wants 'A' UK-EU deal.

But he does not appear to have decided yet whether he wants 'the deal that is actually on offer' which involves compromise.

See also other policies, and I want doesn't I get...
Because the EU also doesn't know whether the PM wants a deal (and any concessions they can realistically offer won't affect that decision)
Let us say the PM gets an EU deal. Immediately Farage says he has sold out the country. Reasonable to assume some ERG MPs follow, for example in pointing out the Northern Ireland protocol remains. Does the PM take them on? Big decision for the PM.
Key decision for many (most?) trade deals is whether those negotiating them are prepared to take on domestic opposition. For Barnier this means countries which will lose out on fish. For the UK it means Brexit ultras. You can't fudge everything.
We're no longer one of the major EU member states pretending to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat when in fact our we were always going to get most of what we wanted. Unfortunately not on offer...
Also the be read to understand whether the PM really wants the EU deal on offer or not...
Another version of the story about the EU capitals view on Brexit negotiations. Basically nothing doing until the UK is prepared to move on the key issues. The EU will wait.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
8 Oct
This looks like a government admission - for the first time - that a US trade deal will require the UK to change our food standards. Which has been widely known by experts but something the government has repeatedly denied until now. Image
The US and EU as trade giants are able to insist imports meet their approach to food standards in trade deals. The US also insists on their food being allowed in your market. Probably less of an issue for deals with other countries (though unknown in the case of CPTPP).
Ironically as the UK government reserves the right to change food standards for a US trade deal, California is insisting on higher animal welfare standards, and hoping to cut all trade from the rest of the US not meeting their standard. Perhaps a UK-California deal...?
Read 7 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
7 Oct
I wondered if a picture might be helpful... which way will he turn?

(Boris Johnson Political Pet Dog Soft Plush Toy with Squeakers available from Amazon and presumably other retailers...) Image
Important note - UK government optimism over an EU deal is not (NOT) yet shared by the EU, and in the past has not (NOT) been a good indicator. Maybe this time, and maybe a big move is in the offing - but advise caution, a lot of pieces have to slot into place.
For the last two weeks the UK side have been suggesting the state aid issue is getting closer. Best guess is this is projection to persuade the EU to accept the UK proposals, also show UK reasonableness. EU response, including today, UK has to go further.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
7 Oct
Evidence that freeports drive growth in developed countries is, er, limited. blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publicat…
At no point have we understood what sort of economic activity will be encouraged by free ports. Unlikely to be services (our major comparative advantage). Can't see why parts of global supply chains would move there given policy uncertainty. So what will it be?
I don't think we know if goods coming from UK freeports will be eligible for tariff free entry to other markets under UK Free Trade Agreements, or whether tax preferences for these areas could be challenged at the WTO. Important questions.
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
6 Oct
The gulf between the Brexit dialogue of absolute sovereignty and the intra-UK tensions of Scotland and Northern Ireland caused by the Internal Market Bill and other government actions is getting wider, and means big trouble ahead for the UK.
Not only does the rest of the world not recognise absolute UK Parliament sovereignty, the rest of the UK doesn't either. But it is a long way back for a populist English nationalist government to recognise internal and external interdependencies in trade or international law.
Obviously we're about to see whether the government will follow through on the most extreme Brexit interpretation, of no trade deal and renounce the Northern Ireland protocol, or will accept limitations of treaty. A real moment of truth far beyond trade deal or not.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Oct
Those who are surprised that excel is being used for important data processing jobs in public sector or big companies might perhaps spend some time working in middle levels in said organisations. This is entirely normal.
It might not be right, but I know of major government schemes deemed to be successful run entirely on excel. And don't ask about some of the systems used by major corporates to generate some of their information...
Yup, this is how it works...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
5 Oct
Today's essential read - @gideonrachman on US-China tensions and ties, and whether we're heading towards a new cold war. It is particularly striking to me that the motivations of both towards the other are unclear - rivals, but in what ways? ft.com/content/7b809c…
To be read alongside this on how the pandemic has relatively boosted China's economic position, and therefore geopolitical confidence. ft.com/content/e29029…
So what exactly are the US (plus UK etc) concerned about with regard to China? Loss of economic power, China internal repression, China external threats, unfair economic competition? And what do they hope to achieve through any action?
Read 5 tweets

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