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6 Oct, 6 tweets, 3 min read
It’s time to inch out on a limb.

In the coming weeks, I’ll unpack my notebook, highlighting the trends and intelligence I feel most certain will shape the outcome November 3.

Here’s the first batch.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
1. Trump fatigue is peaking at the wrong time for Trump.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
2. The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
3. Democrats will regret placing so much emphasis on absentee voting.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
4. Trump might lose women voters by numbers we’ve never imagined.

politico.com/news/magazine/…
and thanks to the legend @peter_king for inspiring a longtime reader to steal his "things I think I think" bit.

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More from @TimAlberta

Tim Alberta Profile picture
8 Oct
Frank Luntz focus group, asks for one word to describe Pence: "robot... presidential... even-keeled...presidential...bland...regressive....professional...pathetic....calm....typical politician....comfortable....no emotion"
Frank Luntz focus group, asks for one word to describe Harris: "evasive...nervous...shifting blame...caring....snarky....too rehearsed....nervous....evasive....abrasive....unsteady....rigid....unpresidential"
to those asking - 9 of these 13 undecided voters are men. that said, not a clear gender divide here in their views of the candidates.
Read 9 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
30 Sep
in Frank Luntz's focus group, Ruthie from PA (upper right corner) said she was undecided coming into tonight..... but now likes Biden b/c Trump was behaving like a "crackhead" and made the debate impossible to watch
Luke from Wisconsin (red shirt) says Trump is obnoxious and unpresidential... but that behavior doesn't affect his bottom line, doesn't impact his day-to-day life (like the violence he's seen in Kenosha)
Jeremy from AZ says he's still undecided because he doesn't like Trump but Democrats haven't given him a good reason to vote *for Biden*
Read 9 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
30 Sep
Presidential debates are not a game. The implications are bigger than any sporting event.

Buuuuuuuuut ... with the advent of betting on politics, there's a fascinating intersection of my two pet obsessions. That in mind, here are some locks tonight...
Take the over.
Definitely take "Fake News"
Read 5 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
23 Sep
Covid-19 is not a good answer. Nearly every state offers early voting, either in-person or absentee drop-off. Also, Dr. Fauci has said physically voting is safe. What should have been stressed as a last resort, mail voting, was celebrated as a cause. Dems may come to regret that.
Deleted the one tweet b/c some are interpreting as me excusing/enabling Trump, which I'm obviously not doing.

The president's delegitimizing of elections is the single greatest threat to American institutions in our lifetimes. Knowing that... nobody should play into his hands.
Idealism and realism are not mutually exclusive.

Expanded access to voting is a good thing. We can celebrate it.

We can also recognize that Trump *wants* chaos, and that the more votes cast in-person, the fewer chances for delays, disqualifications & talk of a rigged election.
Read 5 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
21 Sep
"The truly bad stuff is in states like Pennsylvania... where you're talking about universal ballots just being mailed to everybody. OK? Can we just report this correctly to the people listening?" - @DanCrenshawTX to me.

Yes. The congressman was wrong. 1/
Pennsylvania is not universally mailing ballots to everybody. The state allows for *applications* to be sent to registered voters—something Crenshaw initially said he was OK with—but it does not send ballots unsolicited.

This was a repeated point of contention in our Q&A. 2/
There are states mailing out ballots, and states mailing out *applications* for ballots.

Crenshaw conflated these processes in our Q&A, and I'm trying to distinguish them.

He's right that Nevada is mailing ballots to all RVs. But Pennsylvania and 40 other states are not.
Read 12 tweets
Tim Alberta Profile picture
17 Sep
NEW 📨 Letter to Washington

Dominating the rich white vote is Trump’s only chance to hold down losing margins in metro areas—which, in turn, is his only chance of securing a second term.

Which brings me to **crucial** Ozaukee County (sorry, @daveweigel)

politico.com/news/magazine/…
“I voted for Trump last time, but I cried. Literally—I cried while voting," said Quiana Verbeten, 31, a hair stylist.

And?

"I actually feel better about him now.”

Her husband, Peter: "It's funny... I feel much worse about him now. But I’ll probably vote for him again." Image
Jeff & Linda Moses are lifelong Republicans.

He's stuck. Can't vote for Biden, doesn't want to vote for Trump.

She's voting Biden. "People are afraid of this white supremacist movement gaining stream—and how Trump seems to be a part of it.”

(will post separate thread on Linda) Image
Read 6 tweets

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