Thread by @maggiekb1

And now, a few science reminders ... this will have to be a thread because there's a lot going on here.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313449844413992961

1) Flu deaths seldom top 100,000. Estimated flu deaths are a spread, and there's only one year they got close to that in the last decade: 2017-2018, when the estimated death spread for this country was between 46,000 and 95,000.

Also at least 200,000 people have died from COVID

Here's a link where you can see flu death numbers for the last decade. Also, you know, those flu deaths are numbers that happen WITH vaccination in place. Which is not a thing we have for COVID yet.

cdc.gov/flu/about/burd….

2) Now let's talk about that flu vaccine. Which he neglected to encourage you to get.

Please get your flu vaccine.

Flu vaccines are not 100% effective. They are certainly more effective if you get one than if you don't. So, you know, there's that.

Also, we know that even if you get a vaccine and still catch the flu, the vaccine can make your case milder. cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-w…

Why don't flu vaccines work as well as, say, polio or smallpox vaccines? Because the flu virus is a jerk, basically. It mutates ... A LOT. Quickly. So each year, we need a new vaccine. And each year, there's more than one strain of the thing circulating.

There's a whole damn global infrastructure dedicated to tracking it so we can predict what the virus will look like when flu season starts in our hemisphere and have a vaccine ready to fight that particular iteration of flu. Shockingly, this prediction is not always accurate.

Anyway, I think this stuff with how flu changes and why it's hard to vaccinate against is really interesting. But suffice to say, we aren't just like "eh, flu." We literally spend millions and employ thousands tracking and vaxxing the thing.

3) Now let's talk about "learning to live with it". True, we will need to learn to live with COVID-19. It's not just gonna vanish. But what does that mean? Well, for one thing, it definitely doesn't mean mocking and dismissing the use of basic precautions like mask wearing.

"Learning to live with it" doesn't mean "Go back to doing exactly what you did before March 2019". Or, anyway, it shouldn't.

With no vaccine yet, "living with it" means school closures, mask wearing, lotsa testing, social isolation, etc etc.

Vaccines will not make COVID cases/deaths drop to zero. But they will likely start getting us to a place where these unending comparisons to influenza actually make some sense, rather than being wishful thinking and willful ignorance. Again, 46k-95k =/= 200,000+.

4) Finally, let's talk about COVID death risk by population demographics. Yup, it does vary a lot. And young, healthy people don't have a lot of risk of death.

But this is not a situation where the only people at high risk can easily just lock themselves away.

If you're over 60, you're in a COVID high risk category. If you're over 60 and overweight, you are in two COVID high risk categories.

This is millions of Americans. And that's before we even get into other comorbidities and racial/income disparities.

I am a very low risk category. So are my kids. But we are pretty damn socially isolated and we wear masks. Why? Because we can still spread the virus. I don't want to give it to the checkout lady at the grocery store. I don't want to give it my parents.

I'm not hiding under my bed. I've got a pod. I see friends outside with masks on. I shop. I work. I order take-out. We go to parks. I will even cop to not 100% perfect mask usage all the time when I'm outside.

But that IS learning to live with it.

Nothing like a good rant to fire up the blood in the morning.