Year-to-date hurricane and major hurricane activity is well below average in the Northern Hemisphere (via @philklotzbach -->
NH hurricanes since 1990
To date in 2020 (6 Oct) there have been 22, about 4 below average
NH major hurricanes since 1990
To date in 2020 (6 Oct) there have been 9 (about 4 below average)
NH hurricane dayss since 1990
To date in 2020 (6 Oct) there have been 53.5 (about 40 below average)
NH hurricane major days since 1990
To date in 2020 (6 Oct) there have been 16.25 (about 13 below average)

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More from @RogerPielkeJr

2 Oct
Important article by @SolomonMg and colleagues

Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public | The Journal of Politics: Vol 82, No 4…
I discussed the pathological potential of horse race election predictions a little ways back…
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
This won't make me friends in my campus admin but I have tenure so...

The @CUBoulder fall 2020 COVID semester has been a failure & with a heavy financial cost to the campus

In due course I expect @jaredpolis, CO Legislature, Regents, @CUSystem to evaluate & act accordingly
CUB reported $71.5m budget shortfall 2020-21

Included in the shortfall was $25m for a "COVID-ready campus"

To mitigate shortfall we had salary reductions of $14m

So CUB staff paid for the "Covid-ready campus" out of our salaries

Not that it failed, do we get our money back?
Had CUB simply started off online on Aug 24 rather than going online Sept 21 no campus employee would have needed to take a salary cut & campus would still have had an extra $11m as a buffer against enrollment declines

It is not a comfortable subject, but these are the facts
Read 4 tweets
22 Sep
More misuse of RCP8.5 in gov't policy analyses
I went down the rabbit hole
The CBO hurricane analyses are based on two dated 2013 studies which depend upon RCP8.5
Emanuel 2013 and Kopp et al. 2013
Unsurprisingly, the work Bloomberg and Steyer project sits at the core of the new CBO estimates…
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
College football players as study subjects

Don’t these researchers need IRB approval for such human subjects research?

Deeply troubling behavior by universities who should know better
These are not observational studies
These are studies of situations that the research institution has created
They are human subject experiments
B10 clearly sees football players as lab rats
“... an opportunity in a global pandemic to be able to help solve some of these medical issues, especially from a cardiac-registry standpoint & be leaders from a research standpoint, that was really important"… Image
Read 11 tweets
16 Sep
The "Iron Law" formalized by @KenCaldeira & colleagues

"the implementation of an economically optimal global climate change mitigation policy will impose a net cost on the current generation"

"the break-even year is relatively far into the future—around 2080..." Image
I addressed the policy implications of the asymmetry in timing of climate policy costs and benefits in a 2007 paper: "THE CASE FOR A SUSTAINABLE CLIMATE POLICY: WHY COSTS AND BENEFITS MUST BE TEMPORALLY BALANCED"… Image
In their new paper @KenCaldeira et al rightly observe: "One way to potentially overcome some of the above barriers would be to emphasize the air-quality co-benefits of climate change mitigation"

Compare 2007: Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
🧵I’m referenced in this @WSJopinion editorial today

That is great because it gives me a chance to write this thread about scientific integrity, Trump & Biden

Joe Biden gives a speech on wildfires and never mentions better forest management.… via @WSJ
The @WSJopinion accurately cites my (& colleagues) research, @NOAA & the @IPCC_CH

That said, the Editorial Board posits a false equivalence between the delegitimizing words & deeds of Trump and the exaggerated hyperbole of Biden

They are not equivalent
Describing Trump administration as “anti-science” does Trump a favor — it is much, much worse

Trump & appointees are in fact “anti-competency” in complete fealty to autocracy

We see this with @NOAA @CDCgov @US_FDA @fema to name just a few

This is about governance not science
Read 8 tweets

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