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Catherine Rampell Profile picture
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6 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Trump is currently on track to become the first president since modern economic statistics began to leave office with fewer jobs than he inherited
washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump…
The purported greatness of the economy would certainly be news to the 27m people filing for unemployment, or the 1 in 10 adults in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the last 7 days
Boasting about stock markets is also silly, and not only because half of Americans don't own stocks. Presidents don't control markets. Even if they *did,* Trump would compare poorly to his predecessor
On other econ measures Trumps usually emphasizes, such as trade deficit, he's also doing badly. (Size of trade deficit, like stock gains, is also a bad way to gauge economic health, but again -- this is what Trump has said he should be measured by)
And if the economy were truly "great," why is the debate now happening on Capitol Hill whether to pass a $1.6T stimulus -- or a $2.2T one?
Because the economy is still in tatters, and households, businesses, states, etc. desperately need help
Trump's message seems to be “things are going great -- no need to try and do better!”
Telling people millions of unemployed, hungry, desperate Americans that this is as good as things are going to get does not seem like a winning pitch
And of course now he's announced that the economy is going very big-league greatly that no more stimulus is needed after all!
Sorry suffering Americans -- you'll have to wait until after the election (possibly until January?) before you get any relief.

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More from @crampell

Catherine Rampell Profile picture
27 Sep
NYT: Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes the year he won the presidency. In his 1st year in White House, he paid another $750.
He paid no income taxes at all in 10 of previous 15 years — largely because he reported losing much more money than he made nytimes.com/interactive/20…
His returns “reveal the hollowness, but also wizardry, behind self-made-billionaire image...that helped propel him to White House & that still undergirds loyalty of many in his base. Ultimately, Trump has been more successful playing a business mogul than being one in real life”
His tax returns show how misleading his public financial disclosures — where he has reported gross revenues, not profits — have been. In 2018, Trump said in his public disclosure filings that he had made at least $434.9 million. The tax records show $47.4 million in losses.
Read 9 tweets
Catherine Rampell Profile picture
20 Sep
Senior officials in Trump's White House, including the ones actively dismantling the refugee system, are themselves descended from refugees.
E.g., read @jeanguerre's new book on Stephen Miller, which details his refugee lineage on both sides of his family amazon.com/Hatemonger-Ste…
Or listen to this Trump Inc about Kushner's grandparents, who were Holocaust refugees; and who (understandably) lied on their visa application in order to seek refuge in the US. Grandmother: “For the Jews, the doors were closed. We never understood that” propublica.org/article/trump-…
Read 4 tweets
Catherine Rampell Profile picture
18 Sep
Trump & his political appointees worked to discredit the National Weather Service, during a hurricane;
the Federal Reserve, during a recession;
USDA's Economic Research Service, during a farming crisis;
so, sure, why not also the CDC during a pandemic?
nytimes.com/2020/09/18/us/…
On the one hand, in the past, when Trump needlessly frittered away statistical/scientific agencies' hard-won reputations, I used to wonder: Won't he regret this eventually? At some point *something* bad will happen and he'll need the public to believe what these experts say
As @Austan_Goolsbee has put it (adapting some wisdom from the late Paul Volcker): Normal times are when you establish the credibility by being honest even if it makes you look bad in the short run, because you will need it when SHTF.
Read 6 tweets
Catherine Rampell Profile picture
15 Sep
Favorable views of the US and our president have fallen to record lows in many countries. Respondents in Pew survey were more likely to say they expect Putin & Xi to "do the right thing regarding world affairs" than they'd expect this of Trump pewresearch.org/global/2020/09… Image
Majorities have an unfavorable opinion of the U.S. in nearly every country surveyed (thanks for your continued faith in us, South Korea!) Image
Overwhelming majorities rate America’s response to coronavirus outbreak as bad Image
Read 4 tweets
Catherine Rampell Profile picture
9 Sep
share of never-married prime-age adults reached new record high in 2018, per analysis from @WendyRWang ifstudies.org/ifs-admin/reso… Image
rise in never-marrieds largely driven by lower-income/less-educated adults, though other groups less likely to be married today than counterparts in earlier generations too. ImageImage
reasons given by people who want to marry explaining why they haven't yet married (based on survey of Californians). Men more likely to cite lack of stable job as reason than women are. Most common answer though is "haven't found the right person" Image
Read 4 tweets
Catherine Rampell Profile picture
1 Sep
Last week I wrote about backlog of naturalizations that won't be completed by voter registration deadlines. I'll include in this thread some additional data from USCIS about recent natz interviews/oaths. Not sure if these #'s have been reported elsewhere. washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-m…
Numbers from USCIS on naturalization interviews conducted since offices reopened in June. Offices had been closed to such routine services since March.
For context, @chooseboundless estimates that in recent years USCIS conducted about 70,000 naturalization interviews monthly Image
Here are data on recent USCIS numbers naturalizations. Spokesperson said they expect to naturalize ~600k people total during fiscal year that concludes Sep. 30. Last year, 834k new citizens were naturalized. Image
Read 4 tweets

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