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Shravan Venkataraman 🎡 Profile picture
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6 Oct, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Someone sent me this screenshot of a strategy someone had shared in an interview.

I wanted to do some digging as to the validity of the strategy. Tested it on Nifty Index. Following are the results.
Signals generated from Nifty SPOT. Taking the trades in Nifty Futures. All the conditions as given in the screenshots given above.

Stats of the test from 2011 Jan -2020 May are as follows.
Starting capital: 200,000
Ending capital: 306,375
CAGR: 4.59%
Max DD: 27.23%
Total no of points made in 9.5 years - 1330 odd points.
Win rate: 17.8%
Average winner: 7667 rupees
Average loser: -1381 rupees
The CAGR/MaxDD figure is bad. This is all on a daily timeframe. 1330 points in ~9 years is very bad.

The win rate is too low. But, max drawdown is also very very high at 27.23%.

This system isn't worth trading at all.
Don't trade a strategy that people share in interviews. They share that because it doesn't work. Or they share unoptimized base versions. Either way, don't blindly get into trading the strategy. Test it thoroughly, vet the idea, test other variations, and then decide.
I haven't tested this strategy on individual stocks, but I wouldn't be surprised if the results are equally bad with stocks too. I'll update if i get to looking at this strategy with stocks. But since Nifty50 doesn't hold up, individual component stocks won't hold up mostly.
The test ran was with one lot without any compounding to get the base figures for all the parameters. If aggressively compounded, the strategy wouldn't have run for the full 9.5 years. Approach these kind of strategies you find online from a testing perspective and vet them.

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More from @theBuoyantMan

Shravan Venkataraman 🎡 Profile picture
7 Oct
This book "Education of a value investor" by @GSpier is a must read for everyone who wants to be a better investor.

From how superior self-awareness aids with investing process to how mentors and idols form a huge part of your growth in this field, this book has immense wisdom.
1. Use compound interest to your favor. Compounding at any rate consistently, year after year, your wealth increases over a period of time exponentially.

2. You can compound goodwill too. In this field, goodwill and relationships are of paramount importance.
3. Charlie Munger's talk - "24 standard causes of human misjudgement" - listen to this as many times as it takes for you to imbibe all the values in the talk.

4. Humans are irrational. And, the market runs on that irrationality. The rational few take the major pie of profits.
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Shravan Venkataraman 🎡 Profile picture
6 Oct
Recently saw a Google Talks presentation of @jposhaughnessy which was filled with wisdom nuggets. Listing some of them down here.
1. The only point of failure that a passive
investor faces is panicking near a market bottom and selling out of all of his or her index funds. That's really the
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By definition, they're getting the average return, they're getting the low costs, they're getting a lot of really good things.

But they do face that point of failure and, sadly, I have seen many, many people who swore that they would never ever do such a thing do exactly that.
Read 26 tweets
Shravan Venkataraman 🎡 Profile picture
5 Oct
Sensational video until the last sentence. In the last sentence, I realized the entire 35 mins was an elaborate pitch deck for his PMS. 😅
But as @deepakvenkatesh has mentioned, whenever a fund manager talks in CERTAIN terms about 4x, 10x, with words like "definitely" "certainly" next to such numbers with 100% confidence, I like to stay away from their PMS or whatever they are offering.
And FYI, without testing anything I can tell right out of basic head-level calculations that the volatility of those two products they have is at least 2-3x more than that of a sovereign/government bond.
Read 5 tweets
Shravan Venkataraman 🎡 Profile picture
5 Oct
95% of educated people marriages break because of financial incompatibility.

Some tips on financial compatibility and running a family financially.
1. Budget properly, every month.

Use the envelope method. Make budget each month for several components - leisure, groceries, travel, fuel, metro, movies, subscriptions, eating out, etc., whatever components you want to have in your budgets, create separate envelopes.
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Shravan Venkataraman 🎡 Profile picture
4 Oct
If you're starting a business in India alone, start as a sole proprietorship setup. Do not, I repeat, DO NOT start with an LLP or a Private Limited unless you legally require them for whatever business you do. Grow to at least 1-2 crores profit per year and then switch if needed.
We started our business as Private Limited. Starting as sole proprietorship allows you to focus on the business and growth first instead of needless unnecessary compliances and regulations, especially a lot of legal and compliance overhead government keeps coming up with.
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Shravan Venkataraman 🎡 Profile picture
4 Oct
Guys, learn about negative and positive skew in trading and strategies. From yesterday's post's comment section, it looks like most people are ignorant about skew. It will do you so much good to learn about it and use the knowledge to your advantage. Start with Taleb's books.
@nntaleb and his "AntiFragile" "BlackSwan" books deal with exactly this. So many ignorant comments yesterday, like "only someone who is unprofitable would say that a consistent trader will blow up". Read that whitepaper I had attached, and educate yourselves.
My post wasn't a sour grapes tweet, but a famous quote from trading floors. High win rates are often associated with negative skew strategies which have tail issues associated with blowing up. Attempting trading as a profession without the basic knowledge about this is imprudent.
Read 6 tweets

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