If you scratch the surface of this economic crisis it’s not hard to find the legacy of the last... In Cleveland you can find it in the churn in ownership of rental properties in Black neighborhoods. One house we looked at traded hands 7x in two years... 1/ bloomberg.com/news/features/…
11410 Clarebird Ave was essentially owned by two families between 1975 and the early 2000s.

It peaked in value in 2004 at $93k.

Last year it sold to its current owner, a company called BL US1 LLC, for just over $65k.

In other words in 15 yrs it lost a third of its value.
Who is behind BL US1 LLC? All we know is that it is a French investor... Yes... French... And the $900:month rent meant they were getting a 16% gross annual return on their investment... 3/ Image
In one 28-day stretch culminating with the Sept 17, 2019, sale to BL US1, ownership changed 4x, all among LLCs, according to property records. BL US1 bought the house from another LLC, Immobilier Cleveland, that bought it the same day for $49k and got a 32% gain in hours. 4/
Both Immobilier Cleveland and BL US1 are linked to Thibaut Gueant, whose Aventura, Fla,-based property firm, Invest US, caters to French investors looking to buy Cleveland real estate. 5/

Check out the promo video here on their web site: invest-us.com
The Clarebird house, Gueant says, was one of about 150 his firm sold over the past 18 months to individuals drawn by Cleveland’s low prices and high rental returns. Immobilier Cleveland was his company, and BL US1 belonged to a French client he declines to identify. 6/
The gap between the sales prices last September was meant to cover the cost to his firm of a one-year guarantee on rent and repairs that he offers to investors. 7/
Why does that all matter?

Well, housing activists say it has created a weird market for homes in some of Cleveland’s most fragile neighborhoods where capital appreciation isn’t the point. Often investors are looking to reduce capital gains taxes made on other investments...
Home owners investing long-term in houses and neighborhoods get crowded out by short-term investors. In an economic crisis you get evictions and more churn. Streets go downhill.

And all that is a legacy of the subprime and foreclosure crisis more than a decade ago... 9/9

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More from @sdonnan

2 Sep
Economics is about people. So if you want to understand an economy you have to talk to its people.

Since late March I've been speaking to people in Ambridge, PA, a place that once was called Economy.

This @BW story was the result:

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
@BW This is Felicia Mycyk. She is a track and football coach. She's also a community activist who does all sorts of things from handing out laptops to kids who need them to running Zoom community discussions. She runs Ambridge Connection, which is like a community corner on Facebook,
@BW This is Rick Thornhill. He's the pastor at the New Hope Community Church. This summer he officiated at three funerals for men who died from overdoses. To him and his community that remains a bigger crisis than Covid-19.
Read 7 tweets
27 Jul
Spoke with my mother in Australia last night and it reinforced for me how the US has completely lost perspective on COVID-19 both in terms of scale of outbreak here and needed response.

Australia has seen daily cases spike to 450+ a day. No there aren’t zeros missing there...
Australia is a small country. But it has a population of 24m people. That’s more than Florida (20m), which is reporting roughly 10,00 cases a day.

My county in Maryland has a population of 1m. It has reported 17k cases and > 700 deaths. Australia has had 14k and 161 deaths.
How is Australia responding? Any intl travelers (including Australian citizens) have to spend 14 days in quarantine under guard at a government-designated hotel.

In response to the latest spike caused by an outbreak in Melbourne authorities have locked down the city again.
Read 11 tweets
17 Jul
Economics is about people. So if you want to understand if an econ policy works you need to talk to people.

I made two trips to Cleveland earlier this summer to ask whether a $2tn federal rescue is working. And I met some great people...

bloomberg.com/news/features/…
This is Bridget Ferguson. She is 28 and a mother to five kids under 8. Her bid to relaunch her life after more than a year living in a shelter was delayed by the pandemic in March. She moved into a new home in June. But she still needs child care so she can go back to work.
This is Tony Jones. He’s been turned down for unemployment and can’t see how he would apply for a small business loan for his barber shop. He was shut for two months earlier this year because of the lockdown and reopened May 15. But business is still very slow.
Read 7 tweets
12 Jul
So I can report that @M_C_Klein and @michaelxpettis’ “Trade Wars are Class Wars” is good beach reading. Woke up with a few thoughts after finishing it last night.

1. It’s not about trade wars. It’s a history book about global imbalances. The title is #2020 clickbait.
2. It’s light on the past decade since the financial crisis. In fact it feels like there’s more written about 2008 and MBS than the rise of populism.

3. Hobson’s idea that exports and “over production” are a false economy is seductive. But it ignores human ambition.
4. It is very light, it seems to me, in attributing any changes in economies to technological revolutions. Part of the reason the US has been willing to sacrifice some manufacturing jobs is that whole new industries have been created. This book ignores those new industries.
Read 14 tweets
24 May
This is late. But we need a definition of what a new Cold War means.

I lived through final two decades of the last Cold War. I get the power competition parallel with what’s developing between US & China. But at no point did US and USSR have a major econ relationship, for one.
I have spent more than a year hearing people deploy the phrase. It sounds ominous. But underlying the first Cold War was a decades-long tension that one mistake might mean the end of life as we know it in a matter of minutes under a mushroom cloud.
I don’t think that’s what people mean when they use Cold War this time around. What people are talking about now is a new era of economic competition. There’s an ideological clash overlaid, of course. But that’s pretty different in terms of threats...
Read 7 tweets
17 May
“For basically six weeks I’ve received nothing.”

One of the responses to the US economic crisis underway was an expansion of unemployment benefits.

But the reality is millions of claims are still unpaid. And that is helping fuel the push to reopen.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The reality is that the implementation of the UI expansion has been far from smooth. Across the country state systems have been overwhelmed.

The first wave was to file unemployment claims. Now the problem is state systems are struggling to administer those claims.
In Maryland a third of claims have not been paid because they are stuck in administrative limbo. That’s 160,000 people waiting. The system is still overloaded. And it’s changing the view of Gov Hogan’s handling of the crisis: baltimoresun.com/coronavirus/bs…
Read 13 tweets

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