Trinh Profile picture
7 Oct, 10 tweets, 3 min read
Back to my millennial musing. Read an article today in the WSJ (financial advice column) that didn't even mention interest rates. Wuat???

How to get a mortgage w/ student loans: author suggested a bunch of quick fixers to "look good" to get more debt!

wsj.com/articles/what-…
First, if u have a financial adviser that tells you a bunch of stuff without discussion with you the following:

a) Opportunity costs of time & money, as in interest rates
b) You ability to manage your debt

BUT emphasize your getting more debt then u should be very very waried!
This article reflects everything that is wrong about our American culture that promotes you getting more debt! Buying more things!!! (This time a house you may not afford). No where does it say, buy a house when you can afford it.

Nuts!!!
If I were to write such an article & I care for ur financial future & debt sustainability (WSJ only published a lengthy piece on how Americans up to their nose w/ all sorts of household debt), then I'd say: If can't get an investment return higher than cost of debt, pay the debt.
If u have graduate student loan debt, which is unsubsidized, then that means you are paying very high rates about 7-8%.

Very unlikely u get an investment return higher than that w/o a lot of risks so pay OFF UR STUDENT LOAN DEBT.

If u have credit card debt, pay that off before!
Why? Because your cost of funding credit card debt is DOUBLE DIGITS in interest rate & there is NO WAY you can get a return to your investment at the rate in which it costs you to fund your consumption behavior.

In the order of importance: Pay off the highest rate debt 1st.
Btw, if you are the sort that have a balance on your credit card & you don't pay it off entirely every month, then don't bother getting a house.

You are just not responsible enough b/c will likely get a mortgage u can't afford & buy a bunch of stuff u can't afford to fill it up.
And so this column should be like this:

a) Pay off your credit card debt
b) You shouldn't have an auto loan but if u do, max 1 car
c) Pay off your graduate student loan
d) Save for a mortgage & rainy days
e) Buy only a house u can afford & don't borrow to renovate & consume!!!
By the time you are 65, should be already have PAID OFF YOUR HOUSE.

In CA, even if you have, still have a massive property tax bill + insurance.

Social security pays for ur medicare but need savings to cover costs of maintaining the house.

And that doesn't include spending $.
You are young now but one day you can't make the same income (US labor market is very flexible so if u become old & expensive likely there are younger, cheaper & more eager people to replace you).

Will you age gracefully? Only if u understand time value of $ & act accordingly.

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More from @Trinhnomics

8 Oct
Didn't watch the VP debate because already up my mind (voted & just need to fax to SD). Anyway, in case you are wondering, the US is not doing that terrible economically, in fact one of the best: ISM manufacturing & services are expanding very robustly.
Here is another data point just to sober you up vs the emotional rants on Twitter: US economic surprise index & it has been onward & upward! Image
Everyone talks about how awesome China is doing but if you look at data like the PMI, the US is exceeding China in expansion in both services and manufacturing.

And it's especially doing well vs the Eurozone. Don't believe me, look at the below chart. Image
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
Indonesia is at it again, tinkering at the margin wanting “co-ordinated” independence, to have a direct say in Bank Indonesia’s policymaking. “BI’s function is just not monetary affairs but they should have a role [in] the economic growth and job creation,” Achmad said.
There is a Turkish proverb that says, "It's never too late to turn back on the wrong road."

What is the role of the government? Fiscal policy & that entails expenditure & revenue generation. Both of which have had a dismal performance. Labor productivity has fallen as FDI falls.
*Manufacturing FDI. Indonesia is one of the few Asian economies with expanding working age population but falling manufacturing FDI inflows and falling labor productivity.

Is it BI's fault? No. It's the government's fault. Now they want a quick fix by tinkering w/ monetary.
Read 14 tweets
7 Oct
Have you ever hung out at central bank websites? I highly recommend it & some are more fun than others. Defo got more useful information than Twitter and even research reports.

Was reading this paper on inflation forecasting, the Indian experience.

rbi.org.in/Scripts/Public…
Anyway, why inflation? I think inflation is like the holy grail of economic data. It tells you basically almost everything you need to know about the economy.

The weight of food, shelter, energy, healthcare (essentials vs discretionary) & how the costs of those things change.
Other than weights (developing economies tend to have more food), u can know about culture, weather patterns, distribution network etc. Culture shows up in seasonal pattern. Weather shows up in food prices. Distribution network shows up when got plenty of supply but prices rise.
Read 10 tweets
7 Oct
Good morning! Shall I cheer you up with some good news? I mean, who is tired of Trump & Biden outrage blah blah? 🙋🏻‍♀️.

Let's talk about where we are: We are here! Turning the corner from horrible Q2 and growing again (okay, let's temper this a bit as Q4 looks dicey for Europe)!💃🏻
India is going from zero to hero again!!! Manufacturing PMI bouncing back but the bad news is that services still in contraction & services > manufacturing for India.

Still, hope springs eternal!
This is China manufacturing PMI. It's like totally flat-lining at expansion but not too fast at 51.5 in the latest September print.
Read 6 tweets
6 Oct
Just read the review of this show: "In Darren Star’s latest series, the Sex and the City creator imagines an alternate universe where good intentions & accomplishing the bare minimum are enough."

The 1st line says that @shirklesxp , the author, speaks for her anxious generation.
She is saying that good intentions aren't enough for her & her generation & this show is basically a Bollywood version of the rampant poverty in India (Bollywood movies are escapism & fantasy for Indian poor) that a protagonist can live a carefree life, good intentions & be happy
But then to get to where we are, we must go back to Darren Star influential production on mainstream American culture, especially how women think about dating, fashion, and life: Sex & the City.

In that show, these women care more about designer clothes than growing up.
Read 12 tweets
4 Oct
a) He is saying that this is EURCNY moves, which means CNY tracks DXY, which is roughly 60% EUR

b) China did this since 2015 b/c EUR went on sale vs USD & CNY in 2014 massively (JPY too) in a form of FX war & so devalued to not be too expensive

c) The dollar 💵 remains king 👑
The dollar being King 👑 has nothing to do with it being up or down but rather how much of that is being traded.

As in the value of a currency doesn’t tell u the volume of internationalisation.

What holds the CNY or CNH back is China’s capital controls not the USD.
Once a while u get people writing the rise of the red back blah blah & the currency will be fully convertible in say 2 years.

That has been a moving target for a decade now.

Unless China wants to let it go, as in let go of capital control, dollar is king.
Read 7 tweets

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