The most dangerous category of poor decisions are ones that remain easily hidden from view because any instance of that type of decision is so easy to rationalize.

1/12
Trying to eat healthier?

It’s so easy to justify that piece of cheesecake because you just had a break-up. The ice cream you gobbled down few days ago? It was your kid’s birthday so you were celebrating! That bucket of popcorn last weekend? Movie night with the family!

2/12
Each of these decisions are easy to rationalize on their own. They feel like justifiable exceptions.

That’s why they hide from view.

It’s only when you examine them in the aggregate that you can see they will frustrate your goals.

3/12
Decisions that are easily rationalized are the most dangerous because we don’t usually think about how those small losses accrue.

4/12
Think about NFL 4th down decisions. Ever notice coaches often don’t go for it when the analytics say they should but they never go for it on 4th down when the analytics say they shouldn’t?

5/12
Not going for it is easy to rationalize. The offensive line wasn’t holding. The running back wasn’t performing. Momentum wasn’t going our way.

6/12
What’s weird is the same rationales never get applied in the reverse. We went for it even though the analytics were against us because our offensive line was outperforming. Our running back was on fire! Momentum was really going our way!

7/12
It is only in the aggregate that you can spot the pattern.

When you identify this type of decision, where exceptions are easy to justify like eating a cupcake or not going for it on fourth down, it is helpful to make a Category Decision.

8/12
Once you identify a category of poor decisions that will be hard to spot except in the aggregate, you can decide in advance what options you can and cannot choose that fall within that category.

9/12
A good example of a category decision would be deciding you are a vegan instead of saying you want to eat less meat a& dairy. Be making the decision to be a vegan, you eliminate from your choice set any animal products. This means there are no exceptions allowed.

10/12
Take Kevin Kelly, the head football coach at a high school in Arkansas. He chose to have no punter on the team. No punter means you have to go for it on fourth down. Now that’s a category decision!

11/12

washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp…
Try to identify those fourth down type of decisions in your own life and use the category decision tool to increase the chances you achieve your goals.

12/12

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More from @AnnieDuke

8 Oct
Continuing to highlight the work of those who were kind enough to blurb How To Decide.

Today it’s @pmarca.

I’m not sure what I can say that you wouldn’t already know about Marc, but I'll point you to some of his written work and his wonderful podcasts.

1/8
.@pmarca wrote "It’s Time to Build" about our unpreparedness for the pandemic as it relates to our failure to build. He argues we see failure across the board: housing, education, manufacturing & transportation - not because of lack of money but because of lack of desire.

2/8
No doubt, the piece is super provocative making it a must read.

3/8 Image
Read 8 tweets
6 Oct
How to Decide comes out a week from tomorrow, Tuesday October 13th!

How to Decide truly stands on the shoulders of giants and one of those giants is @PTetlock, who was kind enough to blurb the book. Today I want to shine a spotlight on his incredible work and mentorship.

1/16
.@PTetlock is most famous for his work on Superforecasting with his wife and collaborator, Barb Mellers. That work resulted in the must read, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction which he wrote with @DGardner.

2/16

amazon.com/Superforecasti…
.@DGardner is a must follow here on Twitter, BTW. 😊

3/16

amazon.com/Superforecasti…
Read 16 tweets
23 Sep
Today I want to highlight the work of the fabulous @katy_milkman, who was kind enough to read and provide a blurb for my new book, #HowToDecide.

1/10
Katy is a professor at the Wharton School and an expert on behavior change, committed to helping people understand how they can better shape their habits and achieve their goals.

2/10
.@katy_milkman is the host of #choiceology, a wonderful podcast dedicated to helping people make better decisions through telling compelling stories + conversations with guests that are a who’s who of behavioral economics.

3/10

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cho…
Read 10 tweets
20 Sep
👇 On quitting:

To be a great decision-maker, you need to quit a lot.

Quitting gets a bad rap but it is at least as important (if not more) than sticking to things.

1/2
It’s true that in order to succeed at anything you must have stick-to-itiveness.

But quit-to-itiveness tells you WHAT to stick to.

Be “quitty” to figure out when you should be “gritty.”

2/7
Time is a valuable and limited resource. Quitting things fast that won’t bear fruit lets you spend that resource on more things that matter.

Plus, if you quit a lot you can better figure out what you do like!

3/7
Read 7 tweets
15 Sep
THREAD ⬇️

@AdamMGrant was kind enough to read and blurb How to Decide. I am so grateful to him and want to celebrate his amazing work in return.

1/10
.@AdamMGrant is the author of the NYT Bestseller Give and Take, a must read for anyone trying to excel in business or in their personal life.

2/10
Don’t take it from me, though. The list of fans of the book speaks for itself: @DanielPink @DanTGilbert @RobertCialdini @susancain @ThisIsSethsBlog and Tony Hsieh, to name just a few.

3/10

amazon.com/Give-Take-Help…
Read 10 tweets
31 Aug
THREAD:

Continuing with highlighting the work of those who were kind enough to blurb How to Decide, @CassSunstein is next up 😊

Today is the perfect day for that because tomorrow is the release day for his next book, Too Much Information! 1/13

amazon.com/Too-Much-Infor…
.@katy_milkman says "Years at the White House uniquely prepared Cass—a world renowned behavioral scientist — to write this important book. .... (cont'd)

2/13
"...His must-read arguments about when governments should and should not require companies to disclose information draw on entertaining anecdotes supported by rigorous research." - @katy_milkman on @CassSunstein

3/13
Read 13 tweets

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