Treasuries rates are close to the zero bound.
Why would someone buy and hold treasuries trough maturity ? The answer is convexity. When yields are falling, prices are increasing. The longer the maturity, the higher is the increase of the bond price when rates are falling.
With FED's treasury buying, the market is expecting yields to fall and price to increase, especially if QE is the new norm to inject liquidity to the system. Buying TLT, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF can be in this case profitable.
One major risk is inflation, as it leads rates to increase and treasury bond prices to decline. The decline is amplified for the longer term maturities, this is called negative convexity. In this case buying TIPS can be a hedge against rate increase for longer term maturities.
To resume, in case of deflation being long treasuries on long term maturities is the right strategy. In case of inflation, buying TIPS and shorting long term treasuries is the best strategy.
If you'd like to know more about Bonds, convexity, duration and the current economic situation. Feel free to subscribe to my free newsletter.
amankahar.substack.com

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More from @A_kahar92

6 Oct
U.S Treasuries yields are close to zero, with shorter term maturities yields below longer term ones. The 40% allocation to bonds might be overrated to today's economic situation. As many U.S investors are exposed to treasuries rather than corporate bonds.

Short Thread 👇
1/8 As you can see on the chart below the 30Y maturity is at 159bps and shorter term maturities even lower. It is far better to hold equities in this case as equity premium are favouring equities. Image
2/8 As an example the dividend yield for Apple (AAPL) is at 74bps and the 10Y treasury is at 78bps, both yields are very close. The average inflation rate targeted by the fed is 2% and the U.S 30Y treasury is at 159bps, holding the treasury until maturity is loosing you money.
Read 9 tweets
5 Oct
NFTs is allowing talented artists to express their craft to a wider audience thanks to blockchain technology.

I have developed a methodology to choose appreciating NFTs from a valuation standpoint.

Time for a thread 👇👇👇
1/ First thing to do is to look for the trend and theme. What are people interested into while buying a piece of art ? What is the demand ? Today’s trend as an example is crypto art with themes on #Bitcoin and #Etherum. These are the best selling pieces from price appreciation.
2/ Now search for Artists. Check if the artist has a website or social media. This signals to the investor the professionalism of the artist and whether he or she has long term goals to pursue a digital art career.
Read 11 tweets

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