Alex Profile picture
7 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Think we are in the brink of an alts short squeeze.
Here's the short squeeze.

Unfortunately a massive long squeeze came before. $YFI died last night, temporarily taking all of DeFi down with it.

Reason I expected a short squeeze was chart based. Funding was ratehr flat across the board, and I was wrong.
Volume indicates that may have been the $YFI bottom, and the DeFi bottom by extension. Better calling it in real time, but it was a busy night to be tweeting, particularly when dead tired and trading. The one thing making me doubt has been the funding which never went negative.
Square buying Bitcoin news finally driving the short squeeze on the bitcoin side.

As said reason I expected a squeeze was chart based

#1 had alts charts massively oversold

#2 had bitcoin and stocks on the brink of squeezing higher - the squeeze is on once price moves above the Trump sell-off point - happening now.
Feeling confident now that was the DeFi bottom. For that we need:

#1 stocks no to go full risk-off mode
#2 Cronje to behave like a grown-up

Bet he'll come out of his cave within weeks, release a new product, make $YFI pop 30-50% in days, and have his sycophants like his boots.

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More from @classicmacro

4 Oct
has been getting Creamed. Recent underperformance relative to other cryptos has been notable. One could argue it is the chart. But it is not. One can find plenty equally poor charts across crypto. This IMO is the marketplace punishing by removing the Cronje premium.
Great thread. Yields matter. However, the main reason IMO was Yearn's blatant negligence around the launch, and how poorly the aftermath was handled. Said so when it happened, not in hindsight later. Many exited/reduced positions because of it.

The bigger picture bull case remains unchanged. Odds are high this whole ordeal is short term noise. But in the meantime price crashed a very meaningful 45% in six days.

The event and how it was handled should remind speculators of how high Founder Risk is with .
Read 7 tweets
22 Sep
This is a message to all bad traders out there.

Do you want to turn $5,000 into $50,000 in a year?

I'm going to tell you how.
It is simple.

Just do the exact opposite of whatever it is you are doing.
This is a message inspired by the Palm Beach Group of scammers who promise ridiculous riches. It is all common sense my friends, don't fall for scams.
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
Hindsight rationale for today's crash

#1 UK lockdown talks (seemingly overrated)
#2 Fiscal package odds collapsed even further (Ginzburg)

+last week's news:
#3 No added monetary stimulus until elections pass

+secondary narratives:
#4 Positioning
#5 Corporate Blackouts
All asset classes moved in synchronicity: stocks, bonds, metals, crypto, etc. Non Crypto - Crypto correlations spike when large sentiment changes occur and realized volatility pops. Incredibly, for crypto traders now the macro often matters more than the micro (e.g. miner flows).
Expect volatile chop until the elections. This translates into no chasing trends and reducing risk exposure.

Up or down, don't know. Today exposed how vulnerable the market is to headline risk. VIX in the upper 20s means one has to be ready to rumble.

Read 7 tweets
17 Sep
The market throwing a Powell tantrum since yesterday's close, as the Fed

- did not deliver details on its framework review

- did not ease any further

- upgraded the economic outlook

Ironically, this seemingly was the consensus for the FOMC - market participants disagreed.
As I've been saying for a while, the weak dollar trend is likely on pause until the elections. This holds back most assets, across asset classes, and is the reason I expect chop from here until the elections. I lean towards chop with an upwards skew, but could easily be wrong.
Crazy vertical rallies need either

a) triggers, or

b) extremely oversold conditions

We have neither here.
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
Yesterday's crypto events:

#1 DeFi crushed. Looked like whales running for the exit rather than liquidations (barring the bottom)

#2 Rotation to , which held strong

#3 CB listing generated very little retail interest. joined crashing party after

#4 scam
Looking ahead

#1 trading like a macro asset

#2 Macro not as bullish as pre Jackson Hole. Should be noisy until elections (expect 2-way PA)

#3 Should be a pause within the larger trend

#4 Funding favors bulls short-term

#5 is a winner, local top in, give it time Image
Key variables

#1 The Fed. Unlikely to deliver further easing before elections. We will now TODAY.

#2 Fiscal package. A total sh*tshow. Increasingly likely it doesn't come through before elections.

#3 Elections.

#4 Reopening and vaccine themes (bullish).
Read 4 tweets
14 Sep
pools now yielding

- WNXM: 2.6% daily
- SAFE+DAI: 2.4% daily

(price ref $2000)

Still very high.

Price dropped considerably. Much of the increase came from inexperienced users using single-sided Dai on the Balancer 98-2 pool.

Should be good if developer delivers. Duh.
As usual, the inexperienced bought a top. Ouch. Image
Amount of staked started to decrease late in the afternoon, but not by much. Think the return should keep bid for the rest of the week. The key risk is developer not delivering. For as long as there is no product, speculators are incentivized to dump .
Read 5 tweets

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