Think we are in the brink of an alts short squeeze.
Here's the short squeeze.
Unfortunately a massive long squeeze came before. $YFI died last night, temporarily taking all of DeFi down with it.
Reason I expected a short squeeze was chart based. Funding was ratehr flat across the board, and I was wrong.
Volume indicates that may have been the $YFI bottom, and the DeFi bottom by extension. Better calling it in real time, but it was a busy night to be tweeting, particularly when dead tired and trading. The one thing making me doubt has been the funding which never went negative.
Square buying Bitcoin news finally driving the short squeeze on the bitcoin side.
has been getting Creamed. Recent underperformance relative to other cryptos has been notable. One could argue it is the chart. But it is not. One can find plenty equally poor charts across crypto. This IMO is the marketplace punishing by removing the Cronje premium.
Great thread. Yields matter. However, the main reason IMO was Yearn's blatant negligence around the launch, and how poorly the aftermath was handled. Said so when it happened, not in hindsight later. Many exited/reduced positions because of it.
The bigger picture bull case remains unchanged. Odds are high this whole ordeal is short term noise. But in the meantime price crashed a very meaningful 45% in six days.
The event and how it was handled should remind speculators of how high Founder Risk is with .
All asset classes moved in synchronicity: stocks, bonds, metals, crypto, etc. Non Crypto - Crypto correlations spike when large sentiment changes occur and realized volatility pops. Incredibly, for crypto traders now the macro often matters more than the micro (e.g. miner flows).
Expect volatile chop until the elections. This translates into no chasing trends and reducing risk exposure.
Up or down, don't know. Today exposed how vulnerable the market is to headline risk. VIX in the upper 20s means one has to be ready to rumble.
The market throwing a Powell tantrum since yesterday's close, as the Fed
- did not deliver details on its framework review
- did not ease any further
- upgraded the economic outlook
Ironically, this seemingly was the consensus for the FOMC - market participants disagreed.
As I've been saying for a while, the weak dollar trend is likely on pause until the elections. This holds back most assets, across asset classes, and is the reason I expect chop from here until the elections. I lean towards chop with an upwards skew, but could easily be wrong.
Price dropped considerably. Much of the increase came from inexperienced users using single-sided Dai on the Balancer 98-2 pool.
Should be good if developer delivers. Duh.
As usual, the inexperienced bought a top. Ouch.
Amount of staked started to decrease late in the afternoon, but not by much. Think the return should keep bid for the rest of the week. The key risk is developer not delivering. For as long as there is no product, speculators are incentivized to dump .