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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

9 Oct

Trump hasn't even been defeated yet, but he's lashing out like a vindictive man with nothing to lose. This will only get worse as the election approaches, and will be a nightmare during the lame duck 1/ nytimes.com/2020/10/08/opi…

One thing I didn't say in the op-ed is that a post-election Trump won't be like a normal ex-president, who can go on the speaking circuit, have somebody ghost-write his memoirs, and generally kick back a bit 2/

Instead, he — and his family — probably face personal financial ruin if they lose the shield of office and the flow of income to Trump properties. Given the rampant corruption of his administration, many of those around him probably face prosecution 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

6 Oct

Seeing a lot of talk about the economy and the election that doesn't seem to take into account the fact that we're only 28 days away. Folks, there won't be any new big numbers — we've already had the last job report, which was neither good nor bad enough to move the needle 1/

The GDP report is still to come, and will be a big number— but I think everyone understands that it's about the past, specifically a partial snapback that has already stalled out. Also not going to move the needle 2/

If there was a huge groundswell of growth, people might feel it, but they don't. Nor do they feel the bottom dropping out, although some big layoff announcements might hurt Trump 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

6 Oct

https://twitter.com/Neil_Irwin/status/1313568480130719748

For the most part, it's too late for policy to make any real difference to the Election Day economy; this is the one major exception 1/

https://twitter.com/Neil_Irwin/status/1313568480130719748

But appearances matter: by throwing a temper tantrum instead of seeking a deal, Trump probably tilts a few more voters to Biden 2/

So why is he doing it? Pettiness, maybe made worse by his medical woes; and hard to avoid the sense that he especially hates the idea of having to compromise with Pelosi, thereby acknowledging that she has real power 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

30 Sep

Economic policy was really a secondary issue, if that, last night. Fwiw, viewers apparently saw even that as more or less a draw, while dunking on Trump over everything else 1/ cnn.com/2020/09/29/pol…

But it may be worth pointing out that Trump's signature policy and biggest claim — that he brought manufacturing back with his trade wars — is false. Manufacturing trade deficit (nonag/nonoil, which is a good proxy) has gone up 2/

Also, his tax cut, which was supposed to produce an investment boom, didn't 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

28 Sep

Lots of people making these points, but let me join the chorus. The revelation that Trump paid almost no taxes, while easy to explain, is the least important part of the scandal. 1/

The revelation that Trump has always been a lousy businessman, that he has never shown the ability to do anything well besides self-promotion, is a bigger deal. And we should ask why so many Americans were taken in by such an obvious fraud 2/

But it’s Trump’s huge unpayable debt that’s the real killer. It’s not just a question of who he owes the money to. It’s the incentives: if he loses office, he faces personal ruin. And he won’t even give lip service to the idea of losing peacefully 3/

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Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman

27 Sep

This was not the October surprise Trump was looking for (I know, it's still September, but almost). Of course, the surprise isn't that he's a phony and a cheat — we knew that — but that The Times managed to get the goods 1/

Lots of speculation about whether it will make a difference; no doubt lots of Trump supporters will just dismiss it. In fact, there's a "when prophecy fails" aspect: to admit the truth about Trump is to admit that you were utterly conned, and many will refuse to accept that 2/

But for what it's worth (which isn't much), I find myself thinking of the "world affairs" discussions at my late father's retirement community; I can just see some of the guys saying "$750? He's a total fraud!" and switching their votes 3/

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