NEW: The Sun Belt is the difference between a modest GOP loss that Trump can explain away & a sweeping defeat that threatens the the party + Trumpism

Which is why BETO a few weeks ago implored BIDEN to compete in Texas

On this + more w @alexburnsNYT >

nytimes.com/2020/10/09/us/…
A snapshot of the race for platinum subscribers:

Trump won @Harpootlian4SC Columbia-area state senate district by four points in 2016

Biden now leads Trump there by four, per a poll conducted this week for Dick.
another snapshot, for our gold subscribers....

Republican surveys had McSally competitive in Ariz

Then the Trump-Biden happened

Now she + Trump have plummeted
Another nugget we trimmed.

Trump’s campaign is shifting more $ into staving off defeat in the Sun Belt, cutting Midwest spending >>
What some Republicans are starting to say, though not on the record just yet:

flush the system.

in other words: It will be easier to eradicate Trumpism and reset for ‘22 in a landslide rather than a close loss.
As you look at the polling in Texas, keep in mind what happened in 2018: pre-election surveys did not fully capture Beto strength in metros.

He lost by 2.5, less than some polls had the race at the end
The 2018 Texas experience gets at the entire dilemma for Biden, and explains why he is sending Kamala there but not going himself just yet — Ds can get close but it’s still tough to get from 48 to 50 (or even 49)
Here are the mailers @unitehere members are dropping at doors in metro Phx

One is for Hispanic communities, the other for more heavily white neighborhoods
Some in the GOP have been sounding the alarm about their metropolitan probs for some time.

@davidfholt delivered the below speech at a conservative confab - SRLC! - in May ‘15.

3 years later, Dems won the House seat that takes in OKC
The potential Trump toll for Ariz Republicans. Over two elections, they *may* lose:

-Prez race for first time since 1996
-Both Senate seats
-A House seat
-Both chambers of state house
-State corp commission

and

-Voters may pass a ballot measure levying surtax on wealthy
Yup, should’ve included. A huge local race
Ariz Republicans were hoping @cindymccain wouldn’t go all-in for Biden.

So much for that.

She appeared w him this week + now has cut a to-camera spot

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More from @jmartNYT

7 Oct
.@MarthaMcSally takes opening q on Trump getting virus and....unspools oppo file on @CaptMarkKelly, including his work w China

He says she “attack(ed) my patriotism,” immed likens McSally attack to her calling @kyrstensinema a traitor at 2018 debate

a prickly open in the🌵
“he’s chuck schumer’s star recruit,” says @MarthaMcSally of @CaptMarkKelly

fact check: true.

but...this is sorta the problem for her!
McSally repeatedly asked if she’s proud of her support for Trump

She won’t say. “I’m proud to be fighting for Arizona every single day”

Kelly says his conduct is “not acceptable”

But he doesn’t want to say Trump’s name either, pivots to healthcare and laments the tax bill.
Read 8 tweets
30 Sep
An ugly melee unheard of in modern American presidential debates

w @alexburnsNYT>

nytimes.com/2020/09/29/us/…
The president’s bulldozer-style tactics represented an extraordinary risk for an incumbent who’s trailing Mr. Biden in large part because voters, including some who supported him in 2016, are so fatigued by his near-daily attacks and outbursts
Recall our polling from the weekend: even 40% of Republicans support mandatory masking if ya can't distance.

Yet the president belittled Biden for frequently wearing a mask & mocked his own adviser, Fauci , on the matter.

Totally disconnected from where voters are on this
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
NEW: NYT survey has Biden up 49-41, thanks to commanding lead w women & independents + a tied race (!) among men

And warning signs abound for GOP on Scotus, Roe & Covid

71% of indies + 31% of Rs want legal abortion all or some of time

w @alexburnsNYT >

nytimes.com/2020/09/27/us/…
Here is why some in Trump’s orbit we’re pushing Lagoa, and not just bc of Florida:

A majority of voters said they would be less likely to vote for Trump If his Scotus pick were to overturn Roe, even higher among women + indies.
For all (tired) jokes about diners, anybody who's followed politics since 2017 can easily grasp the race: there's an ongoing suburban backlash against the Trump Party

White women with college degrees:

Biden: 60
Trump: 34

White men with college degrees:

Biden: 50
Trump: 45
Read 4 tweets
27 Sep
Republicans rally to court pick, see opening to recast election.

Ink not even dry on the appointment before Trump pops up to reiterate first law of Trump era: he’ll always change subj, usually back to himself
Want to know why the race is so stable, beyond the diamond-encrusted polarization of our times?

Bc events only matter so much when a sitting president acts in this fashion ^

nytimes.com/2020/09/27/us/…
On another note, amazed @wexler hasn’t surfaced yet to recall FRITZ’s response when @henrymcmaster challenged him to a drug test in 1986 Senate race:

“I'll take a drug test, if you'll take an IQ test”
Read 5 tweets
25 Sep
NEW: Real Talk...

Republicans are mostly enthusiastic about a Scotus fight bc it changes the topic from Trump & covid + they think angry Dems will make ACB a sympathetic figure

w @maggieNYT on a plan that’s based as much in hope as in strategy >

nytimes.com/2020/09/25/us/…
Lamar! — saying it out loud >

“Either the election can be about Trump or about Covid or about the Supreme Court. And I think, of those three, if it’s about the Supreme Court, that traditionally has helped Republicans more.”
What is striking for a president who’s shown no hesitation in using the levers of power for political purposes, he has shown scant interest in even considering Lagoa to help in FL

@SenRickScott makes case to us

But as @maggieNYT notes, Meadows + the right want ACB
Read 7 tweets

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