Further evidence that Trump's election travails are based almost entirely on what he says, not what he's done in office. This is an astounding number given the coronavirus.
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1314537360680419329
Those who think the polls are wrong will see this amazing "better off than four years ago" number as strong evidence of a hidden Trump vote that will overwhelm Biden's edge in the polls. How can people give historic high marks to Trump - better than Reagan! - but throw him out?
A related possibility is that Trump really is lagging behind, but much of his deficit against Biden is transitory anger at things he says, fueled by the relentless media campaign against him. It will dissipate and they'll vote more on the "better off than four years ago" feeling.
Enthusiasm is a big factor in polarized base-driven elections. Those hoping Trump will far outperform the polls can take heart from the thought that all this quiet satisfaction with his performance will outweigh the showy Trump-bashing in legacy and social media.
As for whatever truly undecided voters remain, you'd think when it finally comes time to pull the proverbial lever, this high "better off than four years ago" number suggests they're thinking about the entire Trump first term, not just the coronavirus era.
A potential peril for Biden is that he's running as the Generic Democrat, the basement guy, calling those early lids and letting Trump talk himself out of a job - but a lead built that way could prove very ephemeral if swing voters have last-minute second thoughts about Biden.
Harris' disastrous performance in the veep debate could be a significant factor in that scenario. And make no mistake, Pence mopped the floor with her - the media wouldn't still be blubbering about "mainsplaining" if they thought she won or came anywhere near a draw.
It usually wouldn't matter as much, but this time around there are good reasons for people to think Harris would take over very quickly from Biden. If the race is Trump with these "better off than four years ago" numbers vs. Harris, that's not good at all for Democrats.
I still think it's all about the Return to Normal, and Trump's recent campaign hasn't been good at positioning him as the better choice to get us there. He's been signaling more strife, more arguments, more drama, not stabilization and rebuilding.
Pence did as much as any running mate could to turn that around, and if such an amazingly high number of people think Trump scores well on the most important of presidential job performance reviews, it suggests there are plays here that Trump could run for a touchdown.
All Trump really has to do is project resolve, master some details so he can play the kind of hardball Pence did, and convince wavering voters they sure as hell won't be better off in four years under the Abolish the Police Party and their crackpot ideas.
It shouldn't be hard. Everything Biden, Harris, and the rest of the Dems say is about hatred, vengeance, punishment, destroying what's left of the Constitution with stuff like court-packing, all the industries they're planning to kill. There are no happy endings there. /end
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