Thread by @ChadPergram

1) So, we are off to the races again with the coronavirus talks…which are apparently on….even though, they were never really off.

2) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin have spoken multiple times since President Trump declared Tuesday afternoon he was putting an end to the negotiations and that he would wait until after the election to work on a deal.

3) Pelosi and Mnuchin spoke again by phone about 40 minutes after Mr. Trump supposedly torpedoed the talks.

4) This led yours truly to ask Pelosi yesterday if she believed Mnuchin was truly deputized to negotiate on behalf of the President.

5) “This is not an academic discussion. If he's not speaking for the President..there's no reason to have the conversation. I trust that he is, and I trust that he wants to understand the differences so we can try to find common ground & hopefully we will,” replied Pelosi

6) The Administration is now discussing a $1.8 trillion proposal. Remember that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has repeatedly noted that there is a wide swath of his conference who oppose doing anything else for regarding coronavirus.

7) There’s a reason the ultra-skinny coronavirus bill McConnell attempted to advance in the Senate weeks ago was a scant $300 billion.

8) Republicans have repeatedly told Fox that they didn’t like Mnuchin’s proposal of an additional $400 for those off the job. They thought that would pay some people more to stay at home.

9) And McConnell has said he’s suspect they can get anything done. Certainly before the election.

10) “The writing of it, all of that, does take a while,” said McConnell. “Depending on what the agreement is, how complicated it is, how long it takes to write it. I couldn’t tell you exactly when it would pass.”

11) Even in the middle of a pandemic, McConnell reverted to what President Trump said in his Tuesday tweet-storm, putting the kibosh on the talks.

“The first item of priority of the Senate is the Supreme Court,” said McConnell.

12) The President asserted Tuesday that the Senate should stand down on coronavirus relief and focus on confirming Amy Coney Barrett.

If there is to be an agreement, it will hinge, as it always does on “the math.”

The first part of the math deals with the cost.

13) Hse Dems passed a $3.4 trillion bill in May. Pelosi eventually sliced her request for this round of spending to $2.2 trillion. The administration and some Republicans were mired at $1 trillion to maybe $1.6 trillion. So, the administration bumped up their offer by a lot.

14) “Go Big!” tweeted the President today.

As we say, there has always been a “ceiling” and a “floor” in these talks. Republicans had been at $1.6 trillion. $1.8 trillion perhaps now. That was their ceiling.

15) Democrats were at $2.2 trillion. That was their floor. The problem was the crawlspace in between. Go much above $1.6 trillion, and you start to lose GOP votes. Go much below $2.2 trillion, and there is Democratic attrition.

16) If that's the case, the sides lack the proper “vote cocktail” to pass a bill. Let alone in BOTH chambers.

Republican lawmakers have relentlessly told Fox for weeks that the higher the price tag, the fewer Republicans who are willing to vote yea.

17) So let’s say the Republican number does climb – perhaps by a lot. First of all, that means Pelosi “won.” She gets the dollar figure she wants. Secondly, a costlier bill means more Democrats will vote yes.

18) Now we have a conundrum: Are they really going to advance a bill which has minimal support from Hse/Senate GOPers – yet relies mostly on Democratic votes to pass? And the Republican President is actually going to sign that? If that's the case, Pelosi will have won this round

19) Even if they cut an agreement, say in the next day or two, it would take a four to five days to develop legislative text on a bill of this magnitude. So that gets us well into next week before text is produced.

20) Then, a bill of this dimension probably has to cook for a few days so members of both bodies can decide if they’ll support it. That probably takes another three days. So frankly, it is likely they don’t move this on the floor until the end of the month.

21) You know what else likely comes up at the end of the month?

The Senate floor vote on Barrett.

As the former Sen. John Warner (R-VA) said to me many years ago on Capitol Hill, “We don’t do a lot in Congress. But when we do, we do it all at once.”